Why the battle for rare earths is only just beginning

Autumn 2010: Japan is shocked when a diplomatic incident with China leads to a sudden suspension of rare earth exports to the archipelago. The prices of these strategic metals skyrocket within a few weeks, and the world suddenly becomes aware of its dependence on Beijing. August 2019: In the midst of the Sino-American trade war, China threatens to ‘turn off the tap’ on rare earths, of which it supplies the overwhelming majority, while President Donald Trump talks about buying Greenland (a territory rich in minerals), causing widespread astonishment. Mid-2025: Western car manufacturers openly talk of ‘panic’ after the collapse of rare earth magnet deliveries from China, to the point of fearing the shutdown of certain production lines. These spectacular episodes reveal the critical importance of a family of 17 metals whose names are often unknown to the general public: rare earths.

The battle for rare earths is only just beginning. It is a geopolitical, economic and military struggle for access to and control of resources that have become indispensable to modern technology, energy transition and military power. Smartphones, electric vehicles, fighter jets, wind turbines, missile guidance systems – all depend on these elements with their unique properties. Whoever controls the supply of these strategic materials wields formidable leverage over other nations. Rare earths are thus emerging as one of the lifebloods of global economic and military warfare, just as oil was in the last century. And judging by the exponential increase in demand expected in the coming decades, this battle is indeed only just beginning.

These metals have become a new invisible geopolitical weapon, found nowhere in their pure form in nature but omnipresent at the heart of our technologies. Rare earths are a major strategic and military issue, a source of critical vulnerabilities for dependent powers. The economic and industrial race is on to diversify supplies, with efforts aimed at reducing Chinese dominance. Finally, we will look at the future prospects and risks of escalation in this global rush for the minerals of the future.

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