Vladimir Putin is holed up in his bunkers, haunted by the fear of assassination

Russia has significantly tightened security protocols surrounding Vladimir Putin, against a backdrop of growing fears of an assassination attempt or a coup. According to sources close to the Kremlin and European intelligence services, the Federal Protective Service has reinforced all security measures around the president, who is spending more and more time in underground bunkers, particularly in the Krasnodar region, from where he is directing the war down to the smallest detail.

These fears have been heightened tenfold by the Ukrainian operation “Spiderweb”, during which drones struck Russian airfields beyond the Arctic Circle, as well as by the capture of the Venezuelan Nicolás Maduro by the Americans in January. Now, the president and his family no longer visit their usual residences; his chefs, photographers and bodyguards are no longer allowed to use public transport or make phone calls, and agents patrol the banks of the Moskva with dogs to ward off any drone attacks.

This obsession with security coincides with a gradual withdrawal from domestic affairs, with Putin devoting 70% of his time to the war, according to one of his associates. His public appearances have become rare, barely two since the start of the year compared to 17 in 2025, and his approval rating has reached its lowest level since autumn 2022. On social media, criticism is mounting over internet blackouts, taxes on small businesses and the mass culling of livestock in Siberia. According to analyst Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, “the gap between what Putin wants to focus on and what is expected of him is widening all the time”. Financial Times

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🇱🇧 Lebanon – 🇮🇱 Israel • Israel carried out airstrikes in southern Lebanon yesterday, killing one person and injuring eight, including four medics from the Islamic Health Committee affiliated with Hezbollah, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. The attacks hit Arabsalim and Srifa, despite the ceasefire that came into effect on 17 April. The ministry condemned the strikes, which violate Article 19 of the Geneva Convention. Since 2 March, Israeli strikes have killed more than 2,600 people and displaced over a million in Lebanon.

🇮🇷 Iran – 🇺🇸 United States • Donald Trump said on Friday that he was not satisfied with the new Iranian proposal conveyed via Pakistan to restart negotiations, renewing his threat to “wipe out” the Islamic Republic. A ceasefire has been in force since 8 April, following nearly 40 days of Israeli-American strikes. The US president also notified Congress that hostilities were “over”, whilst authorising the sale of Patriot systems to Qatar and new sanctions against Tehran. The Islamabad talks on 11 April came to nothing.

🇮🇷 Iran – 🇺🇸 United States • The Iranian navy today fired warning missiles at US military vessels that had entered the Strait of Hormuz to assist ships blocked by the closure of the waterway. The operation, dubbed “Project Freedom”, aims to free around 20,000 sailors. The US frigates were not hit, according to Washington. Donald Trump had warned that any obstruction would be “dealt with by force”. Iran is demanding the withdrawal of US forces from the region and an end to the war, whilst Washington is calling for commitments on the nuclear issue.

🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates • The United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ “is not directed against anyone”, the UAE Minister of Industry, Sultan al-Jaber, stated today. This decision serves the country’s “national interests”, as it seeks to reshape its economy. The withdrawal, which took effect in early May, comes against a backdrop of tensions with Saudi Arabia. The UAE plans to reach a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day by 2027, well above the latest quota set.

🌍 OPEC+ • Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ countries yesterday increased their production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day for June, without mentioning the United Arab Emirates in their statement. This increase on paper is unlikely to materialise, as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran. Production by countries subject to quotas fell to 27.68 million barrels per day in March, representing a shortfall of around 9 million barrels compared to the quotas.

🇺🇦 Ukraine • A Russian missile strike on Merefa, near Kharkiv, killed seven civilians this morning, and more than 30 people were injured, including a two-year-old child. According to the regional prosecutor’s office, the attack was reportedly carried out using an Iskander-type ballistic missile. Later in the day, a Russian drone strike killed a couple in the town of Vilniansk, in the Zaporizhzhia region, hitting a market and a church.

🇩🇪 Germany • Two people were killed and two others injured on Monday in Leipzig in an incident involving an SUV that ploughed through a pedestrian zone, according to police. One person was seen perched on the roof of the damaged vehicle, and witnesses reported stabbings at the scene. Germany has experienced several vehicle-ramming attacks in recent years, though the motives of the perpetrator of the Leipzig incident have not yet been specified by the authorities.

🇺🇦 Ukraine • The Russian army lost control of around 120 km² of Ukrainian territory in April, a first since the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the summer of 2023, according to an AFP analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War. Ukrainian forces have advanced in the Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, capitalising on seasonal factors, the disruption of Starlink services for the Russians and internal problems within the Russian army. These gains remain marginal, representing only 0.02% of Ukrainian territory.

🇺🇦 Ukraine • Russia has stepped up its attacks on Ukrainian ports since the start of the year, deploying over 800 drones in four months – 10 times more than during the same period in 2025, according to Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksii Kuleba. The ports in the Odessa region, vital for grain and metal exports, are regularly targeted. Nevertheless, more than 30 million tonnes of goods have been shipped since the start of the year, despite the bombardments that have damaged more than 900 maritime transport facilities since February 2022.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom – 🇪🇺 European Union • On Monday, the United Kingdom announced it was beginning negotiations with Brussels to ensure its defence contractors can benefit from Ukrainian orders funded by the €90 billion European loan to Kyiv. Prime Minister Keir Starmer sees this as “a very good thing” for London, with jobs at stake. To benefit from these spillover effects, however, the UK will have to pay an entry fee to the EU by covering part of the interest owed by the 24 member states of the bloc that will finance this loan.

🇪🇺 European Union – 🇨🇦 Canada • Europe and Canada presented a united front on Monday at a European Political Community summit in Armenia, determined to stand together in the face of the upheavals caused by Donald Trump. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, the first non-European leader invited to this forum, called for an alliance of “middle powers”. Emmanuel Macron spoke of the cost of “excessive dependence” on US protection, following the announced withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany. Volodymyr Zelensky was also present.

🇪🇺 European Union • Inflation in the eurozone is set to rise sharply this year due to rising energy prices, but is expected to fall rapidly and reach 2% in 2027, according to the ECB’s quarterly survey of professional forecasters. Average inflation is expected to be 2.7% this year, then 2.1% in 2027. Economic growth will be affected by the war in Iran, with expansion expected to be just 1%, down from the 1.2% projected three months ago. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates three times this year.

🇺🇸 United States – 🇩🇪 Germany • Donald Trump warned on Saturday that he intended to reduce the US military presence in Germany “much further”, following the announcement of the withdrawal of 5,000 of the 36,000 troops stationed in the country. The decision comes following criticism from Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who had argued that the Americans had “no strategy” in Iran. In the United States, two Republican chairmen of parliamentary armed forces committees said they were “very concerned” about the “wrong signal sent to Vladimir Putin”.

🇺🇸 United States – 🇪🇺 European Union • The Pentagon has also cancelled the deployment to Germany of a US battalion equipped with long-range missiles, a move long planned to address a capability gap vis-à-vis Russia. This decision, linked to tensions between Trump and Merz, deprives Europe of a temporary solution whilst it awaits the development of its own long-range systems by six countries via the ELSA programme. Analysts fear that Washington may withdraw other critical capabilities without a clear timetable, creating lasting security gaps. Berlin had requested in 2025 to purchase American Tomahawks, but delivery times are long.

🇨🇺 Cuba – 🇺🇸 United States • Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday tightening sanctions against Cuba, amidst May Day demonstrations in Havana where, according to the authorities, half a million people marched, including former leader Raúl Castro and President Miguel Díaz-Canel. The new measures target foreign banks collaborating with the Cuban government and the energy and mining sectors. Trump reiterated his threat to “take control” of the island. Cuba is in the midst of a deep economic crisis, with tourism having halved and nickel production at a standstill.

🇨🇺 Cuba – 🇺🇸 United States • Cuba has rejected the new US sanctions, described as “coercive and unilateral measures” by Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez, who considers them contrary to the United Nations Charter. “They will not intimidate us,” he stated on social media platform X. In addition to the embargo in place since 1962, Washington has imposed an oil blockade on the island of 9.6 million inhabitants since January, having authorised only a single Russian oil tanker to dock since then.

🇲🇱 Mali • The head of the junta in Mali, Assimi Goïta, has taken up the post of Defence Minister following the death of Sadio Camara, who was killed on 25 April in a car bomb explosion carried out by a suicide bomber outside his residence, according to the authorities. This coordinated attack was carried out by fighters linked to Al-Qaeda and Tuareg separatists. General Oumar Diarra, Chief of Staff of the army, will serve as Deputy Minister of Defence.

🇸🇿 Eswatini – 🇹🇼 Taiwan • Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te began an official visit to Eswatini on Saturday, Taipei’s sole diplomatic ally in Africa, following the postponement of an initial trip in April due to the revocation of overflight permits by the Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar, under intense pressure from Beijing according to the Taiwanese presidency. Lai praised the 58 years of diplomatic relations with the kingdom.

🇯🇵 Japan – 🇻🇳 Vietnam • Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pledged on Saturday to play an even more active role in ensuring a free and open Asia-Pacific region, during a visit to Vietnam. The two countries signed six agreements covering energy, mineral resources, AI, semiconductors and space. Tokyo and Hanoi are concerned about Chinese claims in the South China Sea. Beijing has accused Tokyo of reigniting the confrontation between the two sides. Bilateral trade between the two countries exceeded $50 billion last year.

🇳🇵 Nepal • The boom in electric vehicles is shielding Nepal from the energy crisis linked to the war in the Middle East, unlike its neighbours Bangladesh and Pakistan, which are facing severe fuel shortages. Powered by hydroelectricity from Himalayan rivers, the country is the second fastest in the world to switch to electric vehicles. In 2024–2025, 13,500 electric vehicles were imported, twice as many as combustion-engine vehicles. A full charge costs $8, compared to $66 for a diesel vehicle. China dominates the market with over 75% of imports.

🇧🇩 Bangladesh • Bangladesh has recorded 311 child deaths from measles since 15 March and 41,793 suspected cases, marking one of the worst outbreaks of this highly contagious viral disease in decades. On Monday, 17 children died within 24 hours, the highest death toll since the outbreak began. Most cases involve children aged between six months and five years. Health services, supported by the WHO, UNICEF and the security forces, are mobilised to vaccinate children.