Ukraine is disrupting Russian logistics and begins to turn the tide of the war

Having built up an arsenal of millions of drones that has turned a 40-kilometre strip along the front line into a death zone, and having then extended its strikes into the heart of Russia to target oil infrastructure and military factories, Ukraine is now focusing its efforts on the space in between: the roads and railways, sometimes more than 160 kilometres from the front line, that transport Russian troops and equipment to the battlefield. Kyiv calls this campaign the “logistical lockdown”, and it is methodically reshaping the battlefield.

Ukrainian forces are targeting trucks and trains behind the front lines using drones equipped with upgraded engines and batteries, integrated Starlink communications and new artificial intelligence capabilities. These attacks are causing fuel shortages, complicating troop rotations and reducing Russian military activity on the front line.

May was the first month since 2023 in which Russia suffered a net loss of territory, according to the Ukrainian research group DeepState. General Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of the Ukrainian army, stated that in May, Kyiv had recaptured nearly 100 square kilometres more than it had lost. Ukraine produces enough drones to launch more than 5,000 medium- and long-range strikes every month, and its Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has announced a programme worth over $113 million dedicated to these capabilities.

“That’s what’s new, and that’s what’s really hurting the Russians,” sums up Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general. The campaign is proving particularly effective on the southern front, where Russia relies on around 300 kilometres of exposed motorways to supply its forces towards Crimea.

But Russia continues to ravage towns in eastern Ukraine, and President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that stocks of Patriot interceptors have reached a critical level. Ukrainian soldiers know this: their advantage may not last. The New York Times

🇺🇸 United States - 🇮🇷 Iran - 🇮🇱 Israel • Donald Trump stated today that the United States “would attack” Iran, accusing Tehran of “mocking” his country, after blaming Iran for the destruction of an Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. In retaliation, the US military struck air defences, radars and control stations near the strait, targeting the towns of Jask and Sirik and the island of Qeshm. Iran claimed responsibility for attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait, and threatened to “retaliate more severely”. Iran and Israel had exchanged strikes on Sunday and Monday, the first since the 8 April ceasefire, leaving two people dead in Tehran. Off the coast of Oman, an attack on an oil tanker, the Settebello, left three Indian sailors missing.

🇱🇧 Lebanon • Yesterday, Israel carried out its deadliest strike on the port city of Tyre since the war began on 2 March, killing at least eight people, before ordering for the first time the evacuation of the entire city, including its Christian quarter where displaced people had gathered. More than 3,600 people have been killed in Lebanon since the start of hostilities. Médecins Sans Frontières has denounced “practices of forced displacement” and suspended its operations, whilst the UN announced it was sending a fact-finding mission to investigate human rights violations.

🇵🇸 Palestine • A UN-mandated commission of inquiry has raised the alarm over the plight of Palestinians, “caught in the crossfire” between Israeli settlers and Hamas. The report details at least seven Palestinians killed and 832 injured in settler attacks in 2025 in the West Bank, a 130% increase year-on-year, and holds the Israeli state responsible for this violence. It also documents 249 cases of executions and serious violence in Gaza, at least 60 of which involved forces affiliated with Hamas.

🇸🇾 Syria • Moscow has announced that it is discussing with Damascus a “possible reorganisation” of its military installations in Syria, including the naval base at Tartus and the airbase at Hmeimim. Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Russia has established relations with the new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and has raised the possibility of setting up a logistics centre in Tartus to distribute its goods across the country.

🇺🇸 United States - 🇫🇷 France - 🇬🇧 United Kingdom • The United States, the United Kingdom, France and around ten allies today condemned the “murderous plots” attributed to groups supported by Iran and targeting Iranian dissidents, journalists and Jewish communities. In a joint statement, they demanded that Tehran put an “immediate” end to these activities, carried out in particular by the Revolutionary Guards and the Al-Quds Force.

🇷🇺 Russia - 🇺🇦 Ukraine • The Ukrainian army struck an arms factory in central Russia overnight using Flamingo FP-5 cruise missiles manufactured on its own soil.

🇧🇬 Bulgaria • The new Bulgarian government has announced that it will no longer supply weapons to Ukraine, with Defence Minister Dimitar Stoyanov calling for “a just peace” negotiated between Moscow and Kyiv and citing the socio-economic losses suffered by his country. A member of NATO and the European Union, Bulgaria had supplied anti-tank missiles, armoured vehicles and ammunition in 2024 and 2025.

🇪🇺 European Union • In its latest package of sanctions, and at the instigation of the Baltic states, the European Commission has proposed banning Russian ex-combatants who served in Ukraine from entering European territory.

🇦🇲 Armenia - 🇷🇺 Russia • Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that Armenia’s membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation and the Eurasian Economic Union must be resolved swiftly. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party won a landslide victory in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, despite Russian pressure denounced by observers. Yerevan wishes to begin the process of joining the European Union.

🇪🇺 European Union • Only 11% of Europeans surveyed across 15 countries consider the United States to be an ally, down from 16% six months ago and 22% in November 2024, according to a poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations. With the G7 and NATO summits approaching, a majority doubt the US’s willingness to defend Europe, and support for increased defence spending is growing.

Nuclear • The nine nuclear powers increased their military spending to a record level of nearly $119 billion last year (+19%), according to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. The SIPRI institute has identified around 12,187 warheads worldwide and warns of a rising nuclear risk, as states are withdrawing more weapons from their stockpiles for deployment.

🇦🇫 Afghanistan - 🇵🇰 Pakistan • Pakistan today carried out its deadliest strikes in weeks on Afghanistan, targeting the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) in the provinces of Kunar, Khost and Paktika. Kabul reported several deaths, including at least 11 children, whilst Islamabad claims to have killed 26 fighters. Relations between the two neighbours have deteriorated.

🇵🇭 Philippines • The 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck off the coast of Mindanao on Monday has left at least 41 people dead and more than 450 injured. Hindered by numerous aftershocks, rescue teams are struggling to reach certain areas, accessible only by helicopter, and patients are being treated outside of already strained hospitals. Thousands of people remain displaced.

🇦🇫 Afghanistan • The UN has stated that a boy was shot dead during a women’s rights rally yesterday in Herat, with witnesses reporting that Taliban security forces fired live rounds. The UN mission said it was “alarmed” by the excessive use of force and documented the arrest of at least 30 women for failing to comply with the dress code.

🇮🇳 India - 🇵🇰 Pakistan • New Delhi has confirmed that it is actively working to deprive Pakistan, upstream, of water from rivers that originate in India. Islamabad warns that any attempt to alter the flow of these rivers would be considered “an act of war”.

🇨🇳 China - 🇵🇭 Philippines • Manila has asked Beijing to remove a floating platform installed near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea and has lodged a diplomatic protest. The Philippines assert that they will not allow the shoal, under de facto Chinese control since 2012, to be turned into an artificial island. China claims “indisputable sovereignty” over the area.

🇨🇳 China - 🇹🇼 Taiwan • The Taiwanese military yesterday simulated the repelling of a Chinese invasion during a coastal exercise near Taichung, firing rockets and artillery to halt an amphibious assault.

🇨🇳 China - 🇰🇵 North Korea • Xi Jinping yesterday concluded his first visit to North Korea in seven years, a summit with Kim Jong-un at the end of which the two countries agreed to strengthen their political, economic and cultural cooperation. Kim reaffirmed his support for the “One China principle”. No mention was made of North Korea’s nuclear programme, whilst Pyongyang is also drawing closer to Moscow.

🇮🇩 Indonesia • A military court has sentenced four soldiers to prison terms ranging from 18 months to three years for an acid attack that seriously injured Andrie Yunus, a human rights activist critical of the army’s influence. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have denounced the trial as a “mockery of justice” and called for those who ordered the attack to be brought to justice.

🇨🇱 Chile - 🇨🇷 Costa Rica - 🇪🇨 Ecuador • The three candidates for the post of UN Secretary-General – Chile’s Michelle Bachelet, Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan and Ecuador’s Maria Fernanda Espinosa – held a debate yesterday in Geneva. In the running to succeed Antonio Guterres on 1 January 2027, they are calling for a woman to finally lead the organisation after 80 years, with Latin America claiming the post on the grounds of geographical rotation.

🇺🇸 United States • US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth is visiting the Guantanamo naval base in Cuba today, where he will meet with troops, before travelling to Central Command headquarters in Tampa, Florida.

🇮🇹 Italy - 🇺🇸 United States • Italian astronaut Luca Parmitano will take part in the Artemis III mission, which in 2027 will test two lunar landers in preparation for the return of astronauts to the Moon. He will be the first European to join NASA’s lunar programme, alongside three American astronauts. The agency has set itself the goal of “beating China in the race to the Moon”.

🇰🇪 Kenya • At least one man has died during protests against a US quarantine centre for nationals exposed to Ebola, near Nanyuki; a Kenyan NGO blames the police for this death. Residents fear the arrival of infected people in a country with no recorded cases, whilst the epidemic is raging in the DRC, where the WHO has recorded 550 cases and 101 deaths. The courts had ordered the suspension of the project.

🇳🇬 Nigeria • A cholera outbreak declared in early May in Borno State, in the north-east of the country, has already claimed at least 74 lives and infected more than 7,800 people, overwhelming health facilities already weakened by 16 years of Islamist insurgency, according to Médecins Sans Frontières. A vaccination campaign is planned.