Trump increasingly threatening towards Iran

The protests that have been rocking Iran since the end of December are continuing and constitute the most serious domestic crisis for the authorities in several years. The movement was triggered by the collapse of the national currency, the rapid decline in purchasing power and anger over the country's economic management. The rallies have since evolved into slogans directly targeting political and religious authorities, with calls for regime change in several cities.

In this context, US President Donald Trump has publicly called on Iranians to continue protesting. In a message posted on social media, he urged protesters to "take control of their institutions," saying that "help is on the way," without providing details on the nature of that support. He also announced the suspension of all contact with Iranian officials as long as the violence against protesters continued.

The Iranian authorities reacted immediately. The head of national security accused the United States and Israel of being responsible for the unrest, describing their leaders as the main instigators of the violence. Moscow also condemned what it described as external interference, warning of disastrous consequences for regional stability in the event of further US military action.

For the first time since the movement began, an Iranian official has acknowledged the overall death toll from the violence. According to this official source, approximately 2,000 people have been killed since the protests began, with no clear distinction between civilians, security forces or other actors. A human rights organisation based abroad puts the death toll slightly higher, claiming that the majority of the victims are protesters. The number of arrests is now believed to exceed 16,000.

The authorities' response combines a firm security stance with political rhetoric. Security forces are continuing arrests and law enforcement operations, while the government claims to recognise the legitimacy of certain economic demands. Specialised courts have been set up to try those arrested in connection with the protests, reinforcing NGOs' concerns about respect for judicial guarantees.

Tensions have further increased with Washington's announcement of 25% tariffs on imports from countries trading with Iran. This measure directly targets Tehran's economic partners, particularly in the energy sector. Already heavily sanctioned, the country exports most of its oil to Asia, particularly China, but also to Turkey, India, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. Beijing was quick to criticise the US decision.

On the diplomatic front, several European countries summoned Iranian ambassadors to protest against the crackdown. The German Chancellor said he believed the regime was in its "final weeks", while acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding the situation. The Iranian authorities rejected these comments, denouncing them as political judgements and double standards.

Despite the scale of the protests and growing international pressure, there are currently no clear signs of a rift within the security elite. Restrictions on communications, particularly internet blackouts, are hampering the flow of information and the coordination of protesters. The situation remains fluid, marked by open confrontation between the street, the government and external actors with divergent interests. Reuters

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