Trump and his allies want peace in Ukraine so they can do business

A Wall Street Journal investigation reveals that the US administration is testing a path to resolving the conflict in Ukraine centered on economic incentives and investment partnerships with Russia, spearheaded by Steve Witkoff, a close associate of the president and special envoy, and fueled by proposals from Russian financier Kirill Dmitriev, Vladimir Putin's designated emissary. The core of the plan is to mobilize some of the billions in Russian central bank assets frozen in Europe to finance joint projects and Ukrainian reconstruction, while opening up opportunities for US companies ahead of their European competitors. In short: favorable positions for Moscow and economic rewards despite Russia's military aggression.

Over the course of nine months of contacts, Witkoff welcomed Dmitriev to Miami, who is pushing an agenda of ending hostilities and major projects: joint exploitation of resources in the Arctic, energy corridors, and even space cooperation, including a mission to Mars with Space X. Meetings and exchanges at the highest level punctuated this sequence, with meetings in Moscow and Washington. Despite setbacks, the White House says it is continuing to work on an agreement, while incorporating geopolitical and military parameters.

Private American and Russian players are positioning themselves for a commercial “post-war” period: there are discussions between Exxon Mobil and Rosneft about a return to Sakhalin, investors are looking at Lukoil assets and gas infrastructure, and emissaries linked to sanctioned oligarchs are testing offers for concessions in the Arctic and rare metals in Siberia. More controversial projects are also circulating, such as the idea of buying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as part of a procedure in Switzerland, subject to authorisation.

On the diplomatic front, unofficially discussed territorial proposals have fueled European and Ukrainian mistrust, notably the idea of a status quo favorable to Russia in part of the Donbass in exchange for Moscow renouncing claims elsewhere, which Kiev finds difficult to believe without guarantees.

On the Ukrainian side, military requests such as cruise missiles have been put on hold, while Witkoff's entourage has promoted economic measures, such as multi-year tariff exemptions to boost recovery.

In Europe, intelligence reports have circulated on these plans, revealing the commercial ramifications envisaged. The continent fears a transatlantic decoupling in favor of a business-dominated tête-à-tête between the United States and Russia. The Wall Street Journal

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IN SHORT
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