Towards a large-scale demilitarised zone in Ukraine?

Ukraine says it is ready to consider a major concession to end the war with Russia: the creation of a demilitarised zone in Donbass. This option is included in a counter-proposal sent by President Volodymyr Zelensky to the United States as part of negotiations with Washington, Moscow and several European capitals. According to Kiev, this zone would involve a simultaneous withdrawal of Ukrainian and Russian forces from both sides of the current front line, without formal recognition of a territorial cession.

In the minds of the Ukrainian authorities, the demilitarised zone would be placed under international supervision. Monitoring missions and a foreign contingent would be responsible for verifying compliance with the agreements, the withdrawal of weapons and the absence of unauthorised troop movements. Zelensky's adviser Mykhailo Podoliak insists on the need for a precise legal framework defining the types of weapons concerned and the control procedures. Kiev would ideally like to see direct participation by the United States to ensure the credibility of the mechanism and deter any resumption of hostilities.

This proposal is part of a broader three-pronged plan. The first prong concerns the effective end of fighting and the stabilisation of the line of separation. The second prong focuses on the establishment of a post-war European security architecture, including guarantees designed to prevent a new Russian offensive. The third component aims to rebuild Ukraine. On this point, Kyiv asserts that Russia, as the aggressor, must contribute to the financing in order to prevent the war from resulting in a strategic benefit without compensation.

However, the territorial issue remains politically explosive. Volodymyr Zelensky points out that he has neither the legal right nor the moral legitimacy to cede Ukrainian territory. In his view, any decision concerning the eastern regions should be validated by an election or a referendum. The outcome of such a vote is uncertain in a country deeply attached to its sovereignty, despite the wear and tear of nearly four years of conflict. The proposed concession is specifically aimed at avoiding a total abandonment of the Donbass areas still controlled by Kyiv, a long-standing demand by Moscow and considered a red line by the Ukrainian government.

This approach is reminiscent in some respects of the demilitarised zone established between the two Koreas after the 1953 armistice. In the Ukrainian case, the zone could be larger and deeper, given the length of the front line. For the European leaders involved in the discussions, this option represents a difficult compromise but one that is considered necessary to break the military and diplomatic deadlock.

In Washington, patience is wearing thin. US President Donald Trump has expressed his frustration at the deadlock in negotiations and set an ultimatum for the end of the year. The United States is also discussing the creation of a free and demilitarised economic zone in eastern Ukraine, combined with partial redeployments of Russian forces depending on the region. Kiev hopes that its counter-proposal will allow discussions to resume and that it will obtain credible security guarantees, which are essential for any acceptance of a lasting ceasefire. Le Monde

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IN SHORT
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