The war in Ukraine is being fought in Chinese factories

Drones have become the central weapon in the conflict. They account for about three-quarters of recent losses. Moscow and Kyiv have developed their own assembly lines, but remain dependent on Chinese components, which cost three times less than their Western equivalents. For simple FPV-type drones, Ukraine still depends on China for around 85% of its parts.

Officially, Beijing claims to be neutral and says it strictly controls exports of dual-use goods. Since 2024, the authorities have expanded the list of products subject to licensing, including flight controllers, motors, carbon frames and radio modules. But on the ground, there are still many intermediaries, front companies and roundabout routes.

Ukrainian and Western officials believe that Russian buyers are being favoured. Some groups are said to have purchased entire production lines to relocate them to Russia. Others go through Kazakhstan, Poland or Germany to conceal the end user. Controls exist, but loopholes are constant. Exporters themselves acknowledge that it is almost impossible to know what happens to a drone once it is sold.

Evidence is mounting on the battlefield. Downed Russian drones contain Chinese engines, sensors and cameras, sometimes with intact serial numbers. Analyses show that Chinese components now slightly outnumber American components in Russian aircraft destroyed in 2025. This does not prove an official policy, but it does reveal the scale of the flows.

Washington has already sanctioned several Chinese companies for supplying engines for the Garpiya drone and for coordinating production in China prior to transfer to Russia. Regional financial platforms have also been targeted for facilitating payments under sanctions. Western officials say that at least one Chinese state-linked company helped circumvent Beijing's own export rules by using a Central Asian country as a front.

At trade shows in Shenzhen, sellers and buyers talk openly about transporting "sensitive goods". Logistics companies offer discreet routes. The largest companies have a good grasp of licensing, while smaller ones rely on specialised freight forwarders, who are more expensive but efficient. The restrictions create friction, not a breakdown.

This situation gives China a decisive role. It already produces 70-80% of the world's commercial drones and dominates critical components. It can accelerate, slow down or redirect flows. For Ukrainian analysts, this industrial power now carries as much weight as certain military decisions.

As negotiations stall, the outcome on the front lines is being decided in exhibition halls, WeChat groups and agreements. The drone war is no longer just a matter of trenches; it is a battle of supply chains. Financial Times

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IN SHORT
🇺🇸 United States • Donald Trump assured Davos that the United States would not use force to obtain Greenland, while asserting that only Washington can secure this Danish territory. He called for immediate negotiations with Copenhagen, describing the issue as a "small request" and downplaying the risks for NATO.

🇨🇳 China • Beijing rejected the idea of taking advantage of the crisis surrounding Greenland, while calling on Europe to reduce its security dependence on the United States. The Foreign Ministry says it does not want to compete for influence, and state media are urging the European Union to strengthen its strategic autonomy, diversify its partnerships, and no longer let Washington dictate its security future.

🇫🇷 France • France has requested that a NATO exercise be organised in Greenland and says it is ready to participate, according to the Elysée Palace. The request comes as Donald Trump revives his plan to acquire the territory in Davos. Emmanuel Macron has denounced the pressure and trade threats.

🇪🇺 Europe • European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for accelerating the Union's strategic autonomy before the Parliament in Strasbourg. She spoke of a more unstable world, levers of power to be strengthened, a solid economy, a robust single market, an industrial base and real defence capabilities.

🇮🇱 Israel – 🇵🇸 Palestine • The Israeli army ordered the immediate evacuation of Palestinian families in Bani Suhaila, near Khan Younis in Gaza, through leaflets in Arabic, Hebrew and English. This is the first forced evacuation since last October's "ceasefire". At least 70 families are believed to be affected. Hamas reports around 3,000 displaced persons and a worsening humanitarian crisis.

🇺🇦 Ukraine • In Kiev, nearly 60% of the capital remained without electricity today after Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. According to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, around 4,000 buildings were also without heating. The temperature dropped to -12 degrees. In Kharkiv, 520,000 subscribers remained without power. In Odessa, a facility was damaged, cutting off electricity to several thousand homes.

🇳🇬 Nigeria • Nigerian forces freed 62 hostages and killed two militants in separate operations in Kebbi and Zamfara states, according to the army.

🇸🇾 Syria • The Syrian army has recaptured large areas of the north and east from the Syrian Democratic Forces (Kurdish), consolidating the power of President Ahmed al-Sharaa, 14 months after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. The provinces of Raqqa, Deir al-Zor and part of Hasakah are affected, along with oil fields, a dam and Islamic State prisons.

🇸🇩 Sudan • Drone attacks are increasing around El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, as the war draws closer to the army-controlled city. Satellite images show new graves and defensive structures. In November, a drone struck a funeral gathering in al-Luweib, killing 65 women and children. More than 100 civilians died in the region in December.

🇪🇺 Europe • Some far-right European parties are distancing themselves from Donald Trump after his threats over Greenland and tariffs. In Germany, the AfD denounces "Wild West" methods. In France, Jordan Bardella calls for a European response. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni speaks of a mistake. Other parties remain silent or argue for a bilateral solution.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom – 🇨🇳 China • London and Beijing plan to revive a "golden age" business dialogue during Keir Starmer's visit to Beijing next week. Leaders of major British and Chinese companies are invited. The green light given to the new Chinese embassy in London has unblocked negotiations.

🇩🇪 Germany • German authorities have arrested a German-Ukrainian woman suspected of spying for Russia by collecting information on drones intended for Ukraine. She is alleged to have passed on files on industrial sites, tests and planned deliveries. Two former members of the Bundeswehr are also under investigation for leaking information.

🇷🇴 Romania • The far-right AUR party is well ahead in the latest polls, with 40.9% of voting intentions, a record high in more than 30 years. The Social Democrats are far behind, followed by the Liberals and two other parties in the ruling coalition. The next election is not scheduled until 2028, but tax increases and budget cuts are fuelling discontent and strengthening the opposition.

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