The geopolitics of food: agriculture as a lever of power

When US-Israeli strikes hit Iran on 28 February 2026, triggering a conflict that paralysed the Strait of Hormuz within days, 30% of the world’s fertilisers, 20% of liquefied natural gas and 5% of the grain passing through this strategic waterway were disrupted. Within three weeks, the price of liquefied natural gas soars by 35%, and that of Middle Eastern urea by 70% according to Argus Media, whilst the price of a barrel of Brent crude exceeds $115. 5,000 kilometres away, in the port of Odessa, Russian missiles continue to target grain carriers. Meanwhile, Beijing has stopped buying US soya and is sourcing it from Brazil and Argentina instead. According to the FAO, nearly 720 million people suffered from hunger in 2024, with more than 307 million living in Africa. In this fragmented world, agriculture is no longer merely an economic sector: it has once again become an instrument of power, capable of undermining regimes, forging alliances and redefining sovereignties.