The battle for sea routes: strategic straits, capes and canals

On 28 February 2026, joint strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran triggered a chain reaction that strategists had feared for decades. Within hours, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, paralysing one of the most vital arteries of the global economy. Oil tanker traffic plummeted by 70 per cent, more than 150 vessels anchored outside the strait, and the price of a barrel of Brent crude soared from $71 to $94 in 10 days. This scenario, long confined to military simulation exercises, had become a reality.

But the Hormuz crisis is merely the latest episode in a series of disruptions that have been shaking global maritime trade since 2023. The Red Sea, transformed into a war zone by attacks from the Yemeni Houthis, has seen its container traffic plummet. The Panama Canal, hit by historic droughts, has had to drastically reduce the number of its transits. The Strait of Malacca, through which 16 million barrels of oil pass every day, remains haunted by the spectre of a blockade in the event of a Sino-American escalation over Taiwan. Over 80% of international trade is conducted by sea, and this vast system relies on a handful of narrow passages that geopolitical analysts call “chokepoints”. These bottlenecks, shaped by geography as much as by history, concentrate both the flows of globalisation and the tensions of a fragmented world. From the sands of Hormuz to the Arctic ice, from the Panama Canal locks to the Taiwan Strait, a silent war is being waged for control of the routes that fuel the global economy.