In March 2025, a Russian nuclear icebreaker named Yakutia left its home port for its maiden voyage to the Gulf of Yenisei in the Kara Sea. A few weeks later, 290 nautical miles off the coast of Alaska, a flotilla of five Chinese ships led by the Xue Long 2 carried out an officially scientific mission of unprecedented scale. These two seemingly anecdotal events crystallise a geopolitical reality that is shaking up the world order: the Arctic Ocean, long a frozen sanctuary at the edge of the inhabited world, is becoming the scene of strategic competition of an intensity not seen since the Cold War.

The Arctic is warming three to four times faster than the rest of the planet. In September 2024, sea ice extent reached its sixth lowest level since satellite observations began in 1979. Multi-year ice, which survives several summers and forms the backbone of the Arctic ice cap, has decreased by more than 95% since the 1980s. What was once speculation is now a probability: according to the most recent projections, the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur by 2027. This environmental transformation, with its global consequences, is simultaneously opening up a new geopolitical space, where territorial ambitions, economic appetites and military calculations collide.

For the Arctic is not just an indicator of climate change. The region is believed to hold around 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered natural gas, representing nearly 22% of global reserves. Added to this are considerable deposits of rare earths, zinc, nickel, palladium and other minerals critical to the energy transition. The estimated value of the Russian Arctic's mineral resources alone ranges from $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. The opening of new sea routes, notably the Northern Sea Route along the Siberian coast, promises to reduce transit time between Asia and Europe by 40% compared to the Suez Canal.

This new geographical and economic situation is fuelling the ambitions of the major powers and transforming the region into a chessboard where the balance of power in the 21st century is being played out. Between increasing militarisation, the reshaping of alliances and the weakening of international cooperation, the Arctic is now the focus of all the tensions that shape contemporary international relations.