The American territorial blackmail against Ukraine

The United States has told Kiev that American security guarantees would be contingent on a peace agreement involving the cession of Donbas to Russia, according to several sources close to the discussions at the Financial Times. Washington has also reportedly proposed strengthening the Ukrainian army after the war in exchange for the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from areas still controlled in the east. This approach marks a hardening of the American stance, at a time when President Volodymyr Zelensky was hoping to quickly conclude bilateral security agreements and a reconstruction plan.

Kiev was seeking to sign agreements this month on security guarantees and a post-conflict economic programme in order to strengthen its position in possible negotiations with Moscow. But the Trump administration is now signalling that any US commitment would depend on a prior agreement with Russia. Ukrainian and European officials describe this stance as an attempt to force Ukraine to accept painful territorial concessions, something Moscow has long demanded.

The Donbas remains a political and strategic red line for Kiev. This industrial region, comprising the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, has been presented as a bulwark since 2014. The defensive belt around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk is often referred to as a "fortress". According to recent polls, a majority of Ukrainians reject any territorial concessions in this area. However, Washington is pushing for the creation of a special economic zone, with a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops to establish a buffer zone.

Initially, the United States reportedly envisaged a demilitarised zone recognised as Russian territory, with the deployment of Russian security forces. After protests from Kiev and European partners, a compromise emerged around a neutral force to supervise the zone. Zelensky has said he is willing to consider a free economic zone, provided that it remains recognised as Ukrainian and that Russian forces withdraw to an equivalent distance.

The proposed guarantees would include a commitment modelled on NATO's Article 5, as well as a promise of a coordinated military response in the event of a sustained attack. But these commitments are considered too vague to reassure Kiev and potentially too broad to be acceptable to Moscow. Behind the scenes, Ukrainian officials believe that Washington is using the promise of guarantees as leverage to pressure Kiev into making concessions that could bring Russia back to the negotiating table.

The White House denies any desire to impose territorial concessions, saying its role is limited to facilitating an agreement between the two sides. But sources close to the negotiations acknowledge that, in the American view, ending the war requires a Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas, without equivalent pressure on Vladimir Putin to drop this central demand. On the ground, Russia controls about 80% of the Donbas. Ukrainian military analysts warn that the official loss of this region would give Moscow a forward base for future offensives into the interior of the country. The Kremlin, for its part, maintains that it will not accept any agreement without a complete and unilateral withdrawal by Ukraine.

A new round of trilateral talks is expected after an initial meeting in Abu Dhabi this weekend. Zelensky acknowledges that complex political issues remain unresolved, and in Kyiv there is widespread concern that vague guarantees will not compensate for irreversible territorial losses, while Washington appears ready to link Ukraine's future security to a concession that Ukrainian society considers unacceptable. Financial Times

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IN SHORT
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