Tensions between Trump and Meloni are becoming increasingly apparent

The rift between Giorgia Meloni and Donald Trump reached a new stage this week, with the two leaders trading barbs via the media.

For several months, the Italian Prime Minister had occupied a unique position: that of a radical right-wing leader capable of acting as an intermediary between a wary Europe and an unpredictable US administration. This stance had earned her international visibility, partly offsetting her relative isolation within European institutions.

But the dynamic has gradually reversed. The US’s decision to go to war against Iran, taken without prior consultation with its European allies, has placed Meloni in an untenable position. Her defence minister was on holiday in Dubai at the time of the announcement, a telling detail of her humiliating sidelining. Domestically, the war triggered a rise in energy prices, against an already difficult electoral backdrop. Italian polls left little room for ambiguity: the public overwhelmingly disapproves of the conflict and Trump’s image.

The US president’s verbal attack on Pope Leo XIV provided an opportunity for a public distancing. Meloni seized the opportunity, knowing that defending the pontiff, a central symbolic figure in Italy, would allow her to break ties without appearing calculating.

For Meloni, who is simultaneously losing Viktor Orbán, her main far-right European ally, the path towards reintegration into the European consensus now stands as the only realistic option ahead of the Italian elections expected next year. The New York Times

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🇪🇺 European Union • The European Commission has expressed concerns about potential difficulties in securing jet fuel supplies in the "near future", due to Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February. Around 20% of the world’s jet fuel usually passes through this strait. The European airport lobby group ACI Europe warns that a systemic shortage will become a reality if traffic is not restored within the next three weeks. Meanwhile, the Australian airline Qantas estimates that soaring prices will cost it up to an additional $570 million in the second half of 2026.

🇪🇺 European Union • The European institutions have approved an unprecedented support plan for the steel industry, which has been doubly weakened by Chinese overcapacity and Donald Trump’s tariffs. The agreement provides for a doubling of tariffs on steel imports and a 47% reduction in duty-free quotas, bringing them down to 18.3 million tonnes per year. These measures are due to come into force on 1 July, replacing an existing scheme. European steel production reached an all-time low in 2025, at 125.8 million tonnes.

🇪🇺 European Union • More than 350 former European ministers, ambassadors and senior officials (including former foreign policy chief Josep Borrell) published an open letter on Wednesday calling for the suspension of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, in force since 2000. They cite violations of Article 2, which makes relations conditional on respect for human rights and democratic principles. The move coincides with a European citizens’ initiative calling for the same measure in seven Member States, including France, having surpassed the one-million-signature threshold.

🇩🇪 Germany – 🇺🇦 Ukraine • Chancellor Friedrich Merz and President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a strategic partnership yesterday focused on military cooperation, particularly in the field of drones. Berlin has committed to funding the delivery of several hundred Patriot missiles and the creation of German-Ukrainian industrial joint ventures to produce drones. A €4 billion “package” has been announced to support Ukraine’s air defence. Merz also called for the swift release of the €90 billion European loan to Ukraine, which has so far been blocked by Orbán’s Hungary.

🇭🇺 Hungary • Peter Magyar, the landslide winner of Sunday’s general election with two-thirds of the seats for his Tisza party, has announced his intention to form a government by mid-May, following a constituent session of parliament scheduled for 6 or 7 May. He intends to suspend public media news broadcasts until a new media law is passed, and has asked President Sulyok, a close ally of Orbán, to resign as soon as the new government takes office. Magyar also wishes to swiftly implement anti-corruption reforms to unblock the €18 billion in frozen EU funds.

🇮🇱 Israel – 🇱🇧 Lebanon • The ambassadors of the two countries met yesterday in Washington in the first direct talks since 1993. Following two hours of talks described as “productive”, both sides agreed to begin formal negotiations towards a lasting peace, at a date and venue yet to be determined. Hezbollah, absent from the talks, described the discussions as “capitulation” and claimed responsibility for rocket fire towards Israeli border towns at the very moment the talks were taking place. Israel is continuing its military operations in Lebanon, as the truce with Iran does not apply to this front, according to Tel Aviv.

🇮🇷 Iran – 🇺🇸 United States • Iran has threatened to block maritime traffic in the Red Sea if the United States maintains its blockade of Iranian ports, imposed on Monday in response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Washington claims to have paralysed 90% of Iranian maritime trade in less than 48 hours. Tehran has warned that its forces will not allow any ships to pass through the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman or the Red Sea. A fragile ceasefire has been in place since 8 April, and Donald Trump has mentioned a possible resumption of negotiations in Islamabad in the coming days.

🇰🇵 North Korea • IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned on Wednesday during a press conference in Seoul of a “very worrying increase” in North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. Several uranium enrichment facilities are reportedly in full operation, including the Yongbyon site, and a new similar plant is said to be under construction. The agency estimates that Pyongyang now possesses several dozen nuclear warheads. Kim Jong Un reaffirmed last month that his country would never renounce its status as a nuclear power.

🇷🇺 Russia – 🇨🇳 China • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov travelled to Beijing on Wednesday to confirm Russian-Chinese solidarity in the face of the war in the Middle East. Russia has declared itself ready to “compensate” for the energy shortfall China is facing due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than half of China’s crude oil imports passed last year. Analysts have played down the significance of this offer, arguing that Beijing already purchases most of what Moscow can ship eastwards. Vladimir Putin’s visit to China in the first half of the year has been confirmed.

🇨🇳 China – 🇵🇭 Philippines • Satellite images obtained by Reuters show that China deployed ships and a 352-metre floating barrier at the entrance to Scarborough Shoal, a disputed fishing zone in the South China Sea, on 10 and 11 April. This shoal, claimed by Beijing but located within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, has been under Chinese control since 2012. The Philippine coastguard has confirmed the deployment; the barrier is reported to have since been removed, but diplomats fear that China is taking advantage of the US’s distraction over the conflict in the Middle East to strengthen its grip on the area.

🇨🇲 Cameroon • Pope Leo XIV arrived in Yaoundé today for a three-day visit, the second leg of an African tour that will take him on to Angola and Equatorial Guinea. The most symbolic stop will take place on Thursday in Bamenda, in the English-speaking region torn apart since 2017 by a conflict between separatists and government forces that has claimed at least 6,000 lives. Armed groups have announced a three-day truce to allow the visit of the leader of 1.4 billion Catholics, which the faithful hope will bring about a “peaceful solution”.

🇸🇩 Sudan • Germany today hosted an international conference in Berlin in an attempt to mobilise humanitarian aid for Sudan, which is entering its fourth year of war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces. The German Foreign Minister hopes to raise over a billion dollars, more than at the London conference. The war has caused what the UN considers to be the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with some 12 million people displaced and widespread famine. Several participants highlighted the US’s disengagement from this issue.

🇨🇦 Canada • Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won all three constituencies up for grabs in by-elections earlier this week, securing an absolute majority with 174 seats in the House of Commons. This victory, which also relies on the defection of five opposition MPs in recent months, significantly strengthens the Prime Minister’s position in the face of the trade war waged by Washington. Carney took the opportunity to announce the suspension of the federal excise duty on petrol and diesel from 20 April to 7 September.

🇵🇪 Peru • With over 90% of votes counted, radical left-wing candidate Roberto Sanchez has moved into second place in Sunday’s presidential election, positioning himself to face Keiko Fujimori in the second round. Sanchez, who promises a new constitution and a “plurinational state”, represents a rural and protest vote that political analysts consider a greater threat to Fujimori than her ultra-conservative rival Lopez Aliaga. The election was marred by serious logistical failures that prevented more than 50,000 voters from casting their ballots, against a backdrop of deep mistrust of the political class.