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🇸🇾 Syria • ISIS regains ground in post-Assad chaos
Six years after its territorial defeat, ISIS is regaining ground in northeastern Syria. Taking advantage of the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime and the gradual withdrawal of US forces, the jihadist group is stepping up its attacks, reigniting fear in an already fractured region. According to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), 117 attacks have been recorded since January, compared to 73 in the whole of 2024.
In Hajin, in the Euphrates Valley, two Kurdish soldiers were shot dead in early October by men on motorcycles. The terrified inhabitants fear a return to the dark days of the caliphate. IS fighters no longer hold territory but operate in small, mobile cells that are difficult to track down. "They shoot and disappear," explains a local commander. Their supporters, often from Sunni tribes, facilitate their infiltration into the cities of the Deir Ezzor desert, where nearly 3,000 fighters are believed to remain.
The security vacuum has worsened with the departure of 500 American soldiers since April. Washington now has fewer than 1,500 troops in Syria, down from 2,000 last year. The Pentagon insists that this reduction reflects the success of its counterterrorism mission, but on the ground, the SDF reports an upsurge in ambushes and attacks. In May, 10 Kurdish soldiers were killed, making it the deadliest month since 2019.
Weakened by internal struggles and the task of guarding 50,000 former jihadists and their families, the SDF is struggling to contain the insecurity. The Syrian government, dominated by former Sunni rebels, is also struggling to impose its authority. Rivalries between Arabs and Kurds are reigniting, fueled by campaigns of arbitrary arrests and mistrust of Damascus.
On the ground, ISIS finances its operations through extortion. In Diban, residents say they pay a $1,000 tax under threat. Militiamen, often without uniforms, blend in with the population and impose their rule. The Wall Street Journal
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IN SHORT
🇸🇾 Syria - 🇫🇷 France • A ceasefire agreement has been reached between French jihadists, led by Oumar Diaby, and Syrian government forces in the Harem region of Idlib, near the Turkish border. Heavy weapons have been withdrawn, allowing authorities to enter the encircled camp. According to multiple sources, the ceasefire has been respected since yesterday.
🇮🇱 Israel - 🇵🇸 Palestine • The International Court of Justice has ordered Israel to facilitate humanitarian aid to Gaza, emphasizing the obligation to accept and allow UN actions, including those of UNRWA. The judges noted Israel's lack of evidence against UNRWA, demanded the protection of employees, and denounced the obstruction of aid distribution. More than 2,100 Palestinians have died during forced transfers, which are prohibited under international law, in the context of prolonged occupation.
🇮🇱 Israel - 🇺🇸 United States • Under pressure from the US, Benjamin Netanyahu was closely supervised during the ceasefire process in Gaza. Trump administration officials, including Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have visited Jerusalem in recent days to maintain the American line. Washington has opened a coordination center in Kiryat Gat to monitor the implementation of the plan, limiting Israel's room for maneuver.
🇺🇸 United States • Two US strikes against suspected drug traffickers' boats in the Pacific Ocean have left five people dead, marking the first operation of its kind outside the Caribbean. Washington has designated certain cartels as terrorist organizations, claiming to be responding to a direct threat. No evidence has been published on the affiliation of the targets, and the legality of these operations is being questioned. Relations with Colombia are becoming increasingly tense.
🇺🇸 United States - 🇷🇺 Russia • New US sanctions have been imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil, two of Russia's leading oil companies, in order to curb oil exports that are financing the Kremlin's war. These measures, unprecedented under Trump, are aimed at preventing any transactions in dollars. Washington has also stepped up pressure on India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil, while Moscow has not proposed any progress towards a ceasefire to date.
🇪🇺 European Union • Today's summit in Brussels was marked by the call from the EU-27 to strengthen the European Defense Agency in order to accelerate the upgrading of military equipment in the face of the Russian threat. Member states will direct their spending towards joint projects, with the support of the EDA. The recently clarified intergovernmental governance entrusts the agency with drafting an annual report on rearmament and provides for recruitment to manage new contracts and monitor progress.
🇩🇪 Germany • The far-right AfD party is suspected of having used its seats in Thuringia to obtain information about the police, the army, and infrastructure, potentially for the benefit of foreign powers such as Russia. Elected officials reportedly asked numerous questions about critical sectors, with a marked interest in anti-drone defense. The AfD has rejected these accusations, while officials are calling for increased vigilance in the face of destabilization risks orchestrated by authoritarian states.
🇧🇷 Brazil • Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, approaching his 80th birthday, has announced his candidacy for a fourth presidential term in 2026. A former worker and left-wing leader, he has shown determination despite doubts about his age, claiming to retain his energy and major influence. His main rival on the right, weakened by the imprisonment of Jair Bolsonaro, leaves the field open, but the competition remains close, against a backdrop of persistent polarization in the country.
🇸🇪 Sweden - 🇺🇦 Ukraine • Stockholm and Kyiv have signed a declaration confirming the sale of 100 to 150 Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine. The announcement, made by Ulf Kristersson and Volodymyr Zelensky after their visit to the Saab factory, paves the way for staggered deliveries starting in 2028. The Gripen, considered a priority by the Ukrainian military, stands out for its technological performance and lower cost compared to other Western alternatives. This acquisition has been hailed as a new era for the Ukrainian Air Force.
🇨🇲 Cameroon • The Constitutional Council has set Monday, October 27, as the date for announcing the winner of the presidential election, after rejecting all challenges to the October 12 vote on procedural grounds or due to insufficient evidence. Meanwhile, Issa Tchiroma Bakary, the FSNC candidate, has released a video from Garoua claiming victory and encouraging his supporters to remain peacefully mobilized.
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