Iran’s arsenal remains largely operational, according to US intelligence

More than a month after the launch of the US-Israeli military operation against Iran, dubbed ‘Epic Fury’, US intelligence agencies are painting a far less rosy picture than the Trump administration’s official statements. According to classified notes dating from the start of the month, Iran has regained operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which nearly a fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption passes.

The assessment goes further. Tehran is said to retain around 70% of its mobile launchers, 70% of its pre-war missile stockpile, and nearly 90% of its underground launch and storage facilities are now considered to be partially or fully operational. The US Navy, for its part, maintains an almost continuous presence in the strait, with more than 20 vessels deployed to enforce the blockade against Iran.

These findings contrast with successive announcements from the White House, where the US president has repeatedly claimed that Iran’s missiles have been pulverised, and those of Pete Hegseth, who presented Operation Epic Fury as a historic achievement that has rendered the Iranian military incapable of fighting for years to come. A White House spokesperson, when asked about these assessments, referred to a message from Donald Trump describing any contrary claim as “virtual treason”.

On the industrial front, the cost of the war is becoming clearer. The Pentagon has revised the cost of the operations to nearly $29 billion, and US stocks of critical munitions are being depleted. The military has deployed around 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles, fired more than 1,000 Tomahawks, and used over 1,300 Patriot interceptors – equivalent to more than two years’ production at 2025 rates. Lockheed Martin currently produces 650 Patriots a year, with an announced target of 2,000 units.

European allies, who have purchased billions of dollars’ worth of munitions for Ukraine, now fear their deliveries will be delayed, and the prospect of renewed hostilities with Iran would place additional strain on already stretched arsenals. The New York Times

AD

Most dictation tools choke on technical language. Wispr Flow doesn't. It understands code syntax, framework names, and developer jargon — so you can dictate directly into your IDE and send without fixing.

Use it everywhere: Cursor, VS Code, Warp, Slack, Linear, Notion, your browser. Flow sits at the system level, so there's nothing to install per app. Tap and talk.

Developers use Flow to write documentation 4x faster, give coding agents richer context, and respond to Slack without breaking focus. 89% of messages go out with zero edits. Free on Mac, Windows, and iPhone.

Try Wispr Flow free

🌍 World • Global demand for sand, the world’s second most extracted resource after water, is outstripping supply and threatening ecosystems, according to a report by the United Nations Environment Programme published yesterday. Around 50 billion tonnes are consumed each year for construction and other uses, and demand could double by 2060. The report calls for national inventories and for sand to be recognised as a strategic resource.

🇺🇦 Ukraine • The three-day truce between Kyiv and Moscow announced by Donald Trump expired at midnight on Monday, and Russia immediately launched 216 drones against Ukraine during the night, killing at least six people in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The Kremlin considers it premature to discuss the “concrete details” of an end to the conflict, despite Vladimir Putin’s comments on Saturday that the war was “coming to an end”. Moscow is demanding the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donbas as a precondition for genuine negotiations, a demand rejected by Kyiv as tantamount to surrender.

🇪🇺 European Union – Mercosur • A committee of experts has voted to ban imports of Brazilian meat from 3 September, due to the use of antibiotics to stimulate animal growth. The decision comes as the free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur has just come into force on 1 May. Brazil has become the first country to be removed from the list of states complying with European restrictions on antibiotics, and will no longer be able to export products such as beef, poultry, eggs or honey to the EU-27.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom • Keir Starmer faces an unprecedented rebellion within Labour following the party’s crushing defeat in the 7 May local elections. Yesterday, 86 out of 403 MPs, including ministers Shabana Mahmood and Yvette Cooper, called for a timetable for his departure, whilst more than 100 others signed a letter of support. The Prime Minister, who has vowed to “continue to govern”, used today’s Speech from the Throne to announce a European Partnership Bill, intended to implement the agreements between London and Brussels without affecting the single market or free movement.

🇨🇭 Suisse • Bern is set to explore other air defence suppliers in light of US delays. Washington has informed Switzerland that the war in Iran would delay the delivery of the five Patriot systems ordered in 2022 by five to seven years, with the cost potentially doubling to 4.6 billion francs. Five other suppliers in Germany, France, Israel and South Korea are being approached, as the government prefers European production. The option of simply cancelling the Patriot purchase remains on the table.

🇪🇺 European Union - 🇦🇫 Afghanistan • The European Commission has invited a delegation of Taliban representatives to Brussels to discuss the return of migrants to Afghanistan, without, however, recognising the authorities in Kabul. Around twenty countries, led by Germany and Austria, have been seeking ways for months to deport Afghans, particularly those deemed dangerous. The meeting, scheduled at a “technical level”, follows two visits by European officials to Afghanistan, and has raised concerns among organisations, which point out that a large part of the Afghan population lives in extreme precariousness.

🇪🇺 European Union • Equality Commissioner Hadja Lahbib on Wednesday called on Member States to ban conversion practices targeting LGBTIQ+ people, describing them as “barbaric”. The Commission opted for a non-binding recommendation, as the required unanimity among Member States could not be achieved. Eight countries (Belgium, Cyprus, France, Germany, Greece, Malta, Spain and Portugal) have already adopted bans of varying scope. Nearly a quarter of LGBTIQ+ citizens in the EU have already been subjected to these practices.

🇮🇱 Israel - 🇱🇧 Lebanon • The Israeli army intensified its strikes in Lebanon today, killing 12 people, including two children, mainly in attacks on vehicles south of Beirut and in Saida. Thirteen people had already been killed the day before in the south of the country, bringing the death toll to over 400 since the 17 April truce. Hezbollah, which has claimed responsibility for attacks on Israeli troops, has vowed to turn the battle into hell, whilst new US-brokered negotiations are set to begin tomorrow in Washington.

🇮🇱 Israel - 🇵🇸 Palestine • The IDF has stepped up its attacks on the Gaza Strip since the ceasefire in Iran on 8 April, with a 35% increase in strikes in April according to the ACLED observatory. 120 Palestinians, including 13 children, have been killed in five weeks, 20% more than in the previous period. Israeli officials believe that Hamas is rebuilding its forces in the devastated enclave, where more than two million residents are surviving in damaged buildings or tents.

🇸🇾 Syria • Islamic State claimed responsibility yesterday for an attack on a coach in the province of Hasakah, which killed two Syrian soldiers, the group’s first deadly operation against the Damascus government since February. The attack serves as a reminder of the persistent jihadist threat as President Ahmed al-Sharaa seeks to extend his authority across the entire country. A former leader of the al-Nusra Front, which was once linked to al-Qaeda, Ahmed al-Sharaa himself fought against Islamic State during the civil war.

🇦🇫 Afghanistan • The conflict with Pakistan killed 372 Afghan civilians between January and the end of March, according to a UN mission report – the highest death toll since 2011. More than half of the deaths resulted from Pakistani strikes on 16 March on the Omid Hospital in Kabul, which treated drug addicts. The actual death toll could be higher. Cross-border clashes have decreased following talks in China in early April, but have not ceased.

🇨🇳 China – 🇺🇸 United States • Donald Trump arrives in Beijing today for a two-day summit with Xi Jinping, the first visit by a US president to China since 2017. The Taiwan issue stands out as a sensitive point: China has reiterated its “rock-solid” opposition to US arms sales to the island, following the announcement in December of an unprecedented $11 billion deal. Donald Trump has indicated he wishes to discuss this with his counterpart, whilst downplaying the risk of a Chinese invasion.

🇯🇵 Japan – 🇺🇸 United States • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday that he was maintaining “constant and solid” coordination with Tokyo on exchange rates, following a meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. Washington appears to approve of Japan’s interventions aimed at supporting the yen, which had breached the 160 yen-to-dollar mark in April due to rising oil prices.

🇮🇳 India • New Delhi has raised its import duties on gold and silver from 6% to around 15% to slow the rupee’s decline. The Indian currency briefly fell to an all-time low on Tuesday, at 95.73 rupees to the dollar, down by around 5% since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February. As the world’s third-largest importer of hydrocarbons, India is feeling the effects of shipping difficulties in the Strait of Hormuz, and Narendra Modi has called on his fellow citizens to limit their gold purchases and to prioritise public transport.

🇵🇭 Philippines • More than a dozen shots were fired today inside the Senate building, where Senator Ronald Dela Rosa has been holed up since Monday to evade an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. No casualties have been reported so far, according to the Senate secretary. Agents from the National Bureau of Investigation reportedly attempted to enter the building before opening fire as they retreated, whilst more than a dozen men in camouflage and armed with assault rifles were also spotted. A former police chief under Rodrigo Duterte, Ronald Dela Rosa is accused of crimes against humanity linked to the war on drugs.

🇻🇪 Venezuela – 🇬🇾 Guyana • Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodriguez, who has been in power since Nicolas Maduro was captured by the US military in January, called on Monday before the International Court of Justice for bilateral talks with Guyana over the Essequibo. Caracas disputes the 1899 border, which awards Georgetown this oil-rich territory of 160,000 km², and is proposing a “high-level bilateral meeting” to resolve the dispute. Venezuela nevertheless rejects any jurisdiction of the ICJ over issues of sovereignty. More than 70% of Guyana’s territory is at stake.

🇻🇪 Venezuela – 🇺🇸 United States • Trade between Caracas and Washington surged by nearly 23% in the first quarter, to $3.3 billion, driven by Venezuelan crude oil exports.

🇭🇹 Haiti • Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé has stated that security conditions do not permit the holding of a presidential election in August, in a country awaiting its first election in 10 years. He is now aiming for the end of the year, with a president to be elected on 7 February. Armed gangs control most of Port-au-Prince and are extending their grip to rural areas, following the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021. The government wishes to reduce the number of candidates to 10 or 15, out of the 280 parties authorised to stand.