Iran has armed clandestine cells in Iraq to carry out attacks in the Gulf

Three or four cells, each comprising around ten elite Iraqi Shia fighters, launched at least seven drone attacks from desert areas near Basra and Samawa, in the south of the country, against targets in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates between 20 April and 17 May. Some of their members come from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a loose coalition of radical Shia factions, but these new groups operate outside its chain of command and report directly to the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), according to the sources, which include two Iraqi military officials, a security official and five militia commanders.

For the commanders interviewed, this manoeuvre reflects a change in Iranian tactics, designed to preserve Tehran’s ability to exert influence in the region at a time when its allied armed groups are severely weakened and its military and economic resources are running low. Several powerful Shia factions, such as Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the Imam Ali Brigades, announced this month that they were beginning to hand over their weapons to the authorities, under US pressure. By regaining control through cells under its direct command, the IRGC seeks to be able to deny any responsibility, divert suspicion away from the main pro-Iranian groups and ease the pressure Washington is exerting on Baghdad.

The memorandum of understanding signed this week between the United States and Iran brings the war to an end, but does not address the issue of Iranian support for armed groups. The targets included the Ali Al Salem airbase in Kuwait, where US forces are deployed, and a military terminal at the country’s airport. The strikes against Saudi Arabia and the UAE were intercepted. The Iraqi authorities are investigating whether an attack on 17 May, which caused a fire near the Barakah nuclear power station in the UAE, was carried out by these new groups. Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had summoned the Iraqi ambassadors in April to lodge a protest. These attacks represent a first test for Iraq’s new Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, who took office last month. Reuters

🇮🇷 Iran - 🇺🇸 United States • The memorandum of understanding bringing the war to an end provides for a permanent cessation of hostilities on all fronts, the lifting of the US naval blockade, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a plan worth at least 300 billion dollars for Iran and the lifting of sanctions. Twenty-five ships already passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. But the hardest part remains to be done: the nuclear talks, which were due to begin in Switzerland for a period of 60 days, have been postponed indefinitely following the violence in Lebanon. Experts believe that Tehran, which refuses to discuss its missiles or its support for armed groups, has emerged from the conflict in a stronger position, whilst Washington has already exhausted its threat of military intervention.

🇮🇱 Israel - 🇱🇧 Lebanon • Israel and Hezbollah agreed today on a ceasefire, following a resurgence of violence that has thrown the Iranian-American protocol into doubt. Israeli strikes have left 47 people dead, including two children, and nearly a hundred wounded in southern and eastern Lebanon, whilst Israel has mourned the deaths of four soldiers, including a senior officer. Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to make Hezbollah “pay a very heavy price” and to keep the army in the south “for as long as necessary”, whilst his minister Itamar Ben Gvir declared that “all of Lebanon must burn”. The truce was negotiated by US and Qatari mediators. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned “a dangerous escalation”.

🇮🇱 Israel - 🇺🇸 United States • US Vice-President JD Vance has warned Israeli officials who criticise Donald Trump. “Over the last three months, two-thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected your country were made by American hands,” he emphasised, adding that he would “not attack the only powerful ally [they] have left”.

🇮🇱 Israel - 🇪🇺 European Union • Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar announced he was severing “all contact” with the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, accusing her of comparing Israel to the South African apartheid regime during a visit to Mexico. Kallas, without directly addressing the remarks attributed to her, reaffirmed her commitment to dialogue and reiterated the EU’s condemnation of Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

🇷🇺 Russia - 🇺🇦 Ukraine • Yesterday, Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Moscow in at least two years, striking for the second time this week a refinery that supplies more than a third of the capital’s fuel and disrupting its airports. At least one person, an eight-year-old girl, was killed and around fifteen others were injured. The Russian Ministry of Defence claims to have intercepted more than 500 drones. Volodymyr Zelensky described the attack as a “fully justified response” to Russian strikes, promising that “if Ukraine burns, Moscow will burn too”, whilst Moscow threatened further massive strikes. Meanwhile, Russian shelling killed two people in the Sumy region and struck Kharkiv today.

🇺🇸 United States • US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has stepped up pressure on NATO allies, announcing a review of the US military presence in Europe within six months. Speaking before the Alliance’s 32 defence ministers, he lambasted the “free riders” and the “shameful” behaviour of countries that had refused to grant US forces access to their bases during the war against Iran. He also threatened to reduce the US contribution to the budget if spending commitments – set at 5 per cent of GDP by 2035 – were not met.

🇪🇺 European Union • The leaders of the 27 member states today embarked on a bitter battle over the future EU budget, with a proposed allocation of 2,000 billion euros for 2028–2034. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Germany categorically rejects the use of borrowing advocated by Emmanuel Macron, and considers the proposal too high – a view shared by the ‘frugal’ countries. On the other side, 17 countries from the South and East, grouped together in the ‘Friends of Cohesion’ bloc, are calling for a more generous budget for agriculture and regional development.

🇨🇳 China - 🇪🇺 European Union • European leaders yesterday emphasised the need to strengthen their trade arsenal in the face of the Chinese onslaught, which threatens entire sectors of their industry. Whilst they agree on the assessment of the massive trade deficit and Chinese subsidies, the 27 member states differ on the response, with several favouring dialogue. France is proposing to take inspiration from the US “Section 301” regime, an idea that is gaining increasing support, including in Germany.

🇧🇾 Belarus - 🇫🇷 France • A Belarusian national was arrested whilst filming a prototype military drone at the Toulouse factory of the French flagship company Delair, as part of an alleged espionage attempt. Delair supplies drones to the French and Ukrainian armed forces.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom • Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer reiterated today that he would fight to remain in power, following the election to Parliament of his rival Andy Burnham, who is now the favourite to unseat him. The Mayor of Greater Manchester won with 54.8 per cent of the vote in the Makerfield constituency, comfortably beating Nigel Farage’s Reform UK candidate, who had been hoping for a victory. Nicknamed the “King of the North” and the British public’s favourite politician, Burnham appears to be the obvious alternative to a weakened Starmer.

🇮🇹 Italy • Giorgia Meloni said she was “dismayed” by Donald Trump’s comments, in which he claimed that the Italian Prime Minister had “begged” him to have her photo taken with him. “I don’t understand why the President of the United States behaves this way towards his own allies,” she lamented.

🇨🇴 Colombia • Around a hundred guerrillas from the National Bolivarian Armed Coordination laid down their arms yesterday in the south of the country, in recognition of left-wing President Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” policy, three days ahead of the second round of the presidential election. On Sunday, Colombians will choose between the left-wing senator Iván Cepeda, Petro’s designated successor, and the hard-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, nicknamed “El Tigre”, who is banking on patriotism and promising a head-on confrontation with armed groups. A victory for the latter could bring an end to the talks and lift the suspension of arrest warrants for the 99 disarmed fighters.

🇵🇪 Peru • Right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori appeared set to narrowly win the presidential election on 7 June, with 50.11 per cent of the vote against 49.89 per cent for her left-wing rival Roberto Sanchez – a lead of around 39,000 votes. Sanchez has lodged appeals to invalidate votes and called for demonstrations in Lima. As the daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, Keiko could become the country’s first woman to be directly elected to the presidency.

🇨🇺 Cuba • The National Assembly yesterday unanimously adopted a wide-ranging programme of 176 reforms in favour of a market economy, a shift described as the most far-reaching since the 1959 revolution. The measures authorise private companies with more than 100 employees, the inflow of foreign capital into the private sector and the opening of foreign currency accounts. “Reality demands urgent changes,” said President Miguel Diaz-Canel. The island, which has been under an embargo since 1962, has been subjected to a US oil blockade for the past five months, pushing it to the brink of collapse.

🇦🇫 Afghanistan - 🇵🇰 Pakistan • Afghanistan claimed today to have carried out air strikes against hideouts of Islamist militants in two Pakistani provinces, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a claim refuted by Islamabad, which says it shot down a “rudimentary drone”. This is reportedly Kabul’s first major offensive in months. The conflict between the two neighbours, once allies, has already claimed hundreds of lives since the start of the year, with Chinese mediation proving fruitless. Pakistani strikes last week killed at least 13 people, including 11 children.

🇹🇼 Taiwan • President Lai Ching-te said he hoped Washington would swiftly approve a $14 billion arms sale, reaffirming that the island “rejects unification” with China and that its defence should not be seen as a provocation. Beijing rejected his comments, accusing Lai of separatism and warning that seeking independence would lead to a “dead end”. The Taiwanese government has also approved additional spending on locally manufactured drones.

🇦🇺 Australia - 🇨🇳 China • From Saturday, China will impose 55 per cent tariffs on Australian beef, imports of which have reached the annual quota of 205,000 tonnes set by Beijing. Presented as a “safeguard measure” to protect the domestic industry, this surcharge could affect trade worth over one billion Australian dollars, whilst Canberra had already expressed its disappointment.

🇳🇪 Niger • Niger repelled a fresh attack by jihadists on Niamey airport and the adjacent military base yesterday morning, six months after an initial offensive claimed by Islamic State. The government reported a death toll of 35, including 11 members of the security forces, two civilians and 22 attackers. The attack, for which no group has claimed responsibility, lasted several hours, with local residents describing heavy gunfire from 6 am onwards. The site, where the junta had stepped up security, is a sensitive location as it recently received a shipment of uranium concentrate.

🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo • The death toll from the Ebola outbreak, declared on 15 May in Ituri province, has exceeded 200 confirmed deaths out of 875 people infected, representing a mortality rate of 23 per cent. Nineteen cases, including two fatalities, have been recorded in neighbouring Uganda. Caused by the Bundibugyo virus, for which there is neither a vaccine nor a treatment, the outbreak is spreading in a region that is difficult to access, plagued by armed groups and characterised by mistrust among the local population. Several NGOs are concerned about serious shortcomings in the health response.