In India, concern is growing in rural areas, where farmers fear an imminent food crisis linked to fertiliser shortages, which are themselves caused by the fallout from the war in Iran. Thousands of kilometres from the conflict, rice and wheat farmers are already seeing the first effects of a global disruption to supply chains, as the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint for global energy trade, is severely disrupted.

In key agricultural states such as Punjab and Haryana, farmers rely heavily on chemical fertilisers to maintain their yields. However, these inputs rely heavily on imports from Gulf countries, which are directly affected by geopolitical tensions. India, the world’s second-largest consumer of fertilisers, uses over 60 million tonnes a year, making its agriculture particularly vulnerable to any external shock. Rising energy prices and the scarcity of natural gas, which is essential for urea production, are further exacerbating the situation.

The Indian authorities are attempting to reassure the public, stating that stocks are sufficient and that supplies are being diversified. But these statements are struggling to convince those on the ground, where farmers, often already weakened by debt and price volatility, fear a new shock. India’s heavily subsidised agricultural system remains highly exposed to fluctuations in international markets, fuelling structural anxiety.

Beyond India, the effects of this crisis are also being felt in Sri Lanka, where memories of a recent fertiliser shortage, against the backdrop of an economic crisis, remain fresh. There too, farmers are facing soaring prices and supply difficulties, to the extent that some are choosing not to sow to avoid taking on further debt. The authorities promise price controls and rationed distribution, but industry players question the reality of available stocks.

According to several international estimates, a prolongation of the conflict could have major consequences for global food security, particularly in developing countries. Agriculture, which is heavily dependent on energy and chemical inputs, thus appears to be a vector for the indirect spread of geopolitical crises. The Guardian

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