In Venezuela, oil resources are not so easy to extract

A few hours after the illegal removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on 3 January, Donald Trump clearly stated his goal: to revive the Venezuelan oil industry with the help of major American companies. Massive investments, infrastructure repairs, return of profits. For the American president, oil is both political revenge and economic leverage.

The revenge is long-standing. Since Hugo Chávez decided to nationalise the industry nearly 20 years ago, Western companies have been demanding around $60 billion in compensation. Washington is now demanding the return of seized assets. But its ambition goes beyond compensation. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, around 300 billion barrels, or one-fifth of the global total. On paper, the potential is enormous.

The reality is harsher. Production has fallen by two-thirds since the late 2000s, to around one million barrels per day. US sanctions, chronic underinvestment and the disorganisation of PDVSA (the national oil company) have permanently weakened the sector. In December, the United States further increased the pressure by blocking exports transported by tankers under sanctions. Shipments have collapsed. The country also lacks naphtha, which is essential for diluting its very heavy oil and is now unavailable from Russia.

Under these conditions, production could fall further, to less than 700,000 barrels per day. A rapid rebound would require a smooth political transition and the lifting of sanctions, two uncertain scenarios. According to estimates, maintenance work would allow production to reach 1.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2026 at best, still far from its maximum potential.

The main obstacle remains financial. Returning production to its level of fifteen years ago would require approximately $110 billion in investment in exploration and production. This is more than the total global expenditure of the American majors in 2024. Chevron, already present in the country under a special exemption, could increase its activities. Other groups remain cautious. Previous disputes, political instability and the limited horizon of the presidential term are dampening enthusiasm. Banks and insurers, which are essential for financing and transport, are equally cautious.

The sector also suffers from a skills shortage. Tens of thousands of engineers and technicians have left the country. PDVSA, largely controlled by the armed forces, would need to undergo profound reform to become a credible partner. This would take years.

Even if it is partially successful, the global context is unfavourable. Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand until the end of the decade. Production is increasing in Brazil, Guyana and the United States. Prices could fall to around $50 per barrel, or even lower, a level that is unprofitable for many Venezuelan fields.

In the most optimistic scenario, production would reach 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day in 2028. This would alter certain trade flows. US refineries would capture part of the volume. Cuba would turn to other suppliers. China, a long-time customer of Venezuelan oil at reduced prices, could be marginalised. The Economist

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IN SHORT
🇻🇪 Venezuela • Maria Corina Machado, leader of the Venezuelan opposition and winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, welcomed the US military operation that led to the capture of Nicolas Maduro. She says she wants to return to Venezuela soon and is positioning herself as a future president, confident that she can win a free election with a large majority. Donald Trump, while welcoming the intervention, has ruled out her candidacy in the short term and postponed any immediate election.

🇻🇪 Venezuela • The fall of Nicolas Maduro did not lead to a democratic transition. Power remains in the hands of a military-business clique led by Delcy Rodriguez, who has been appointed interim president, while the country is controlled by security forces and paramilitary groups. Arrests are on the rise, including among journalists. At the same time, Caracas is engaged in discreet discussions with Washington, banking on an opening up of the oil sector. The United States is currently ruling out the opposition coming to power, considering it ill-prepared, and fears a violent escalation.

🇬🇱 Greenland – 🇩🇰 Denmark – 🇪🇺 Europe • Leading European leaders have given clear political support to Denmark and Greenland in the face of Donald Trump's claims. France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom affirm that Greenland belongs to its people and that only Copenhagen and Nuuk can decide its future. They point out that the Kingdom of Denmark, including Greenland, is part of NATO and that security in the Arctic is a collective responsibility based on sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders.

🇺🇦 Ukraine • Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Paris today to attend a new meeting of the "Coalition of Volunteers" at the Élysée Palace. The Ukrainian president was received by Emmanuel Macron, in the presence of American emissaries and European leaders. Thirty-five countries are expected to attend. Discussions will focus on security guarantees for Ukraine, the terms of a possible ceasefire with Russia and the principle of a multinational force. Paris wishes to demonstrate political convergence between Europeans and Americans.

🇹🇭 Thailand – 🇰🇭 Cambodia • Thailand accuses Cambodia of violating the ceasefire in force since 27 December. The Thai army claims that mortar fire targeted the Chong Bok border area, injuring one soldier, who was evacuated for treatment. Cambodia cites an operational error and speaks of an accidental explosion during construction work, injuring two of its soldiers. Bangkok says it is seeking explanations, without ordering an evacuation. The incident reignites tensions after three weeks of deadly fighting and mutual accusations, particularly over the use of drones.

🇵🇸 Palestine • The Israeli government has launched a new phase of the illegal E1 settlement project in the West Bank, with a call for tenders for the construction of 3,401 homes. The project aims to link the Ma'ale Adumim settlement to Jerusalem, cutting Palestinian territory in two and isolating East Jerusalem. The Israeli authorities are pursuing a project designed to make the creation of a Palestinian state impossible. Israeli NGOs and many states have denounced this as a flagrant violation of international law, with work set to begin in the coming months.

🇵🇸 Palestine • In the occupied West Bank, the Israeli army carried out a large-scale military operation on Tuesday 6 January on the campus of Birzeit University, north of Ramallah. Stun grenades, tear gas, armoured vehicles and soldiers stormed the campus while classes were in session. According to university officials, several students were wounded by live ammunition, some of whom were hospitalised. The university has denounced the attack as a direct targeting of academic life and an act of unprecedented brutality in broad daylight.

🇳🇪 Niger • A jihadist attack targeted the residence of the prefect of Torodi this weekend, about 50 kilometres from Niamey, near the border with Burkina Faso. The prefect, a captain in the Nigerien army, and his entire family were killed, bringing the death toll to at least seven. The attackers set fire to the house, took three military vehicles and freed two detainees. The area, which is under a state of emergency, is experiencing high levels of insecurity and population displacement.

🇺🇦 Ukraine • President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed the departure of Vasyl Maliuk, head of the Ukrainian security service, the SBU, after nearly three years in the post. A central figure in the clandestine war against Russia, Maliuk had overseen major sabotage operations, including a coordinated drone attack on Russian air bases. His dismissal, presented as a resignation, is part of a broader reshuffle of security structures. Several political and military officials believe that this change was not appropriate given the military situation.

🇨🇫 Central African Republic • The National Electoral Authority announces the victory of Faustin-Archange Touadéra in the 28 December presidential election, with 76.15% of the vote in the first round, based on 84.39% of polling stations counted. Anicet-Georges Dologuélé obtained 14.66% and Henri-Marie Dondra 3.19%. Turnout was 52.42%. The two main opponents denounced fraud, contested the credibility of the process and announced appeals to the Constitutional Council, which is due to announce the final results on 20 January.

🇺🇸 United States – 🇫🇷 France • The French group Orano has secured $900 million in US funding to build an enriched uranium plant in the United States. The project, supported by the Department of Energy, aims to strengthen US independence from Russia. Located in Tennessee, the plant represents a total investment of $5 billion. It is intended to secure the supply of nuclear reactors and meet the growing demand for electricity, driven by data centres and artificial intelligence. Production is expected to begin in the early 2030s.

🇸🇴 Somalia – 🇮🇱 Israel • Somalia has denounced an "unauthorised incursion" following Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar's visit to Somaliland. The Somali Foreign Ministry asserts that this territory is an integral part of internationally recognised Somalia and denounces it as an attack on its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Israel, which recognised Somaliland on 26 December, defends its decision as "moral" and in line with reality. Somaliland has claimed independent statehood since 1991.

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