In Mali, Russia is struggling against the jihadists

Since Saturday 25 April, Mali has been facing the worst security crisis in its recent history. Coordinated attacks carried out by jihadists from the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), allied with the Tuareg rebellion of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), simultaneously struck Bamako, Kati, Gao and three other towns across the country. The toll is heavy: at least 23 civilians and military personnel killed, the strategic town of Kidal falling on 26 April, and Defence Minister Sadio Camara killed in a suicide bombing.

At the heart of the turmoil, the partnership between the Malian junta and Russia, established in late 2021 with the deployment of Wagner mercenaries – now known as the Africa Corps – has been severely weakened. Malian officers have not minced their words: “The Russians betrayed us in Kidal,” one of them told RFI, claiming that the mercenaries had been warned three days before the attacks but failed to react. The negotiated withdrawal of Africa Corps troops from the city has left a bitter taste among the ranks of the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa), particularly as pent-up frustrations (huge pay gaps, the Russians’ open contempt, disappointing operational results) had been simmering for some time.

Moscow, for its part, was quick to repair its image. Russian state media highlighted the fighting to defend Bamako airport, whilst the Kremlin revived its usual anti-French propaganda, accusing Paris of arming the rebels. Russian Ambassador Igor Gromyko met on Tuesday with junta leader Assimi Goïta, his first public appearance since hostilities began, and reaffirmed Moscow’s “commitment” “to stand by Mali”. Words that sound more like a PR exercise than a guarantee of security.

Experts are divided on what comes next. Whilst a tactical withdrawal of Russian forces from northern towns appears to be taking shape (the Malian army has already abandoned certain positions in the Gao region), a complete withdrawal seems unlikely in the short term. Russia has staked too much on the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) to withdraw without a stinging admission of failure. But the snub is real, and the question now haunting Bamako is whether its 2,500 Russian auxiliaries, poorly equipped in terms of intelligence and air assets, are truly capable of defending such a vast territory against a rapidly expanding jihadist threat. France 24

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