Hungarian elections: the downfall of the Orbán regime?

On Sunday 12 April, polling stations opened at 6am across Hungary for an election that all observers describe as the most decisive since the fall of the Iron Curtain. For the first time since returning to power in 2010, Viktor Orbán is no longer the favourite. Independent polls place Péter Magyar, 45, a former member of Fidesz who has become his main rival, in the lead with around 52% of the vote, compared to 39% for the ruling coalition. The Tisza Party, which Magyar revived in 2024 after it had been an obscure centre-right movement, could win 108 of the 199 seats in the National Assembly, compared with 81 for Fidesz and its ally, the Christian Democratic People’s Party.

The stakes extend far beyond Hungary’s borders. Over the years, Orbán has established himself as the leader of a reactionary international network stretching from Budapest to Washington via Rome, Warsaw and Buenos Aires. His defeat would be a seismic shock for this political family, and a relief for a European Union that has faced systematic obstruction from its most recalcitrant member for the past 16 years. But the “Orbán system”, a skilful interweaving of media control, cronyism, electoral manipulation and institutionalised corruption, was designed to survive a change of government. If Magyar wins, he will inherit a state stripped of its checks and balances, a submissive judiciary, and an economy fuelled by networks of interests tailored to the ruling clan.