Here's how Donald Trump could take over Greenland very quickly

Donald Trump says he wants to place Greenland under American control, despite its belonging to the Kingdom of Denmark and the majority opposition of Greenlanders to integration with the United States. According to several European officials, diplomats and defence experts interviewed, this ambition is part of a gradual strategy combining political pressure, informational influence, diplomatic leverage and military threats. The scenario is deeply worrying for Europeans, who see parallels with the methods used by Russia in its neighbourhood.

The first step would be to actively encourage Greenland's independence. The territory already enjoys a large degree of autonomy, but any secession would require a local referendum followed by negotiations with Copenhagen. A relative majority of Greenlanders are in favour of independence, which opens up a political window of opportunity. Danish officials have mentioned American influence operations, combining local networks, online messages and indirect support for certain political actors, in order to accelerate this process. The aim would not so much be to convince an absolute majority as to create a climate of inevitability around independence.

The second step would be based on an offer that Nuuk considers attractive. The option of direct integration as a US state remains very unpopular in Greenland. On the other hand, Washington could propose a free association agreement, modelled on those concluded with several Pacific states. The United States would then offer military protection, economic access and financial aid in exchange for complete freedom of strategic action on the territory. Some Greenlandic officials believe that this relationship could be more advantageous than the one with Denmark, which is perceived as distant and costly. Others, however, warn of the imbalance of such a power relationship and the risk of broken promises.

The third step would be to neutralise European resistance. The main lever would be Ukraine. Europeans remain dependent on American security guarantees in the face of Russia. An implicit bargain could emerge, linking a stronger US commitment to Ukraine with tacit acceptance of an expanded US role in Greenland. For some diplomats, this choice would represent a bitter compromise, but one that is potentially preferable to a head-on break with Washington, which could lead to sanctions, economic pressure or diplomatic deadlock.

The fourth step would be the most radical. In the event of refusal by Greenland or Denmark, rapid military intervention is considered technically possible. The United States already has a significant military presence on the island, while local and Danish defence capabilities are limited. Experts believe that Nuuk could be taken over in a very short time. Such an action would have no legal basis, would effectively end NATO's functioning and would cause a major crisis of confidence among Western allies. The consequences would include a lasting weakening of military cooperation and intelligence sharing with the United States.

At this stage, several officials believe that this extreme scenario remains unlikely. Nevertheless, the combination of political statements, diplomatic signals and recent precedents is fuelling growing concern in Europe, where many now see the issue of Greenland as a major test for the transatlantic security order. Politico

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IN SHORT
🇺🇸 United States – 🇩🇰 Denmark – 🇬🇱 Greenland • US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Danish leaders next week, as Washington does not abandon Donald Trump's goal of taking control of Greenland. The White House confirms that the option of a purchase is being actively discussed, without ruling out other means. Denmark and the Greenlandic authorities reject any annexation, emphasising the sovereignty of the territory and the risks for NATO.

🇺🇦 Ukraine • In Paris yesterday, the countries of the coalition of the willing expressed their willingness to support Kiev after a possible ceasefire, including by sending troops, subject to a clear security commitment from the United States. American emissaries promise a deterrent role and a monitoring mechanism, without legally binding guarantees. Emmanuel Macron referred to a European reassurance force. However, doubts remain about the reliability of US commitments, with Volodymyr Zelensky demanding texts ratified by Congress.

🇺🇸 United States – 🇷🇺 Russia – 🇻🇪 Venezuela • US forces announced that they had taken control of a Russian oil tanker in the North Atlantic for sanctions violations. The ship, renamed Marinera, was suspected of attempting to load Venezuelan oil under embargo. It was seized with operational support from the United Kingdom in Iceland's exclusive economic zone. Moscow denounced the use of force as illegal and claimed that the vessel was sailing under the Russian flag.

🇮🇱 Israel – 🇵🇸 Palestine • In the West Bank, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights asserts that the discrimination and segregation imposed on Palestinians by Israel has intensified significantly, referring to a system of apartheid. The report refers to a systematic suffocation of rights, a dual legal system between Israeli settlers and Palestinians, massive land confiscations and increased violence by settlers, often committed with the consent of the security forces.

🇮🇷 Iran – 🇺🇸 United States – 🇮🇱 Israel • Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian calls on law enforcement not to take any action against demonstrators, distinguishing between protesters and armed rioters. This position comes after Donald Trump threatened US intervention if protesters were killed. The head of the Iranian army, General Amir Hatami, denounced the hostile verbal escalation and promised a firm response in the event of intervention. Israel has shown solidarity with the protesters, while Tehran accuses Washington and Tel Aviv of inciting violence.

🇻🇪 Venezuela • In Caracas, the population is living in a climate of tension and uncertainty, three days after Nicolas Maduro was kidnapped by US special forces. The authorities have declared a state of external emergency, prepared since 2025, which greatly expands the powers of the executive and suspends several civil liberties. Security forces are stepping up checks and arrests, including of journalists. Despite expectations of political change, Chavism is regrouping around Delcy Rodriguez, supported by Washington in the name of stability, while no democratic transition or elections are being discussed.

🇧🇫 Burkina Faso • The Burkinabe government accuses former transitional president Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba of leading the coup attempt that was foiled on Saturday 3 January. According to Security Minister Mahamadou Sana, the plot involved the assassination of Captain Ibrahim Traoré and several military and civilian officials, the neutralisation of a drone base and an external ground intervention. Several people have been arrested. The coup was reportedly financed with 70 million CFA francs, partly from Côte d'Ivoire.

🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of Congo • In Ituri, the security situation is deteriorating in the Djugu territory. The Convention for Popular Revolution, led by Thomas Lubanga, has resumed fighting around Bule, a strategic commercial crossroads regularly contested with the Congolese army. On 7 January, the town was in the hands of militiamen, accused of using civilians as human shields. According to UN sources, at least 25 civilians were killed and more than 40 wounded in December. Insecurity is depriving more than 87,000 displaced persons of access to humanitarian aid.

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