Fears of a new arms race

The latest nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia expires this week, ushering in a period of uncertainty for international security. The treaty, known as New Start and signed in 2010, limited the number of strategic nuclear warheads deployed by each country to 1,550. It also provided for transparency mechanisms, including data exchanges, regular notifications and inspections of military sites. For more than a decade, this agreement has been one of the pillars of stability inherited from the end of the Cold War.

The disappearance of the treaty marks the end of a framework for cooperation already weakened by tensions related to the war in Ukraine. Russia suspended its participation three years ago, even though both sides appeared to continue to comply with the agreed limits. Politicians and experts now fear a return to uncontrolled arms build-up. The Pope has called on Washington and Moscow to renew the agreement, arguing that the global situation requires avoiding a new arms race.

New Start succeeded the first Start treaty signed in 1991 by the United States and the Soviet Union, which capped the number of nuclear warheads at 6,000. Since then, other control instruments have disappeared. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty has been abandoned, the Open Skies agreement authorising reconnaissance flights no longer exists, and the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe has also been dismantled. The former head of the British armed forces warned that this entire security architecture was in danger of collapsing.

In Moscow, former President Dmitry Medvedev, who signed the treaty in 2010, described its expiry as worrying. An adviser to Vladimir Putin said that the Kremlin would act in a measured and responsible manner if no new agreement was reached. In Washington, the tone is more detached. Donald Trump has said that if the treaty disappears, a better arrangement could be negotiated later. The United States believes that a future treaty should include China, while Russia wants to involve France and the United Kingdom.

At the same time, both powers are continuing to modernise their nuclear forces. Analysts see incentives to develop new strategic capabilities, particularly to circumvent US missile defence systems. Russia is promoting projects such as the Poseidon nuclear submarine torpedo and the Burevestnik cruise missile, designed to evade air defences. The United States, Russia and China are also investing in hypersonic missiles capable of manoeuvring at very high speeds.

According to specialists from the RUSI proliferation programme, these military developments will complicate any future negotiations. The growing role of nuclear weapons in defence doctrines fuels the idea that more countries are seeking deterrence rather than stockpile reduction. The subject was raised during a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska last year, but no concrete results were achieved. BBC News

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