Donald Trump is considering withdrawing from NATO

Donald Trump has stated that he is “absolutely” considering a US withdrawal from NATO, taking his criticism of the alliance to a new level. This stance comes against a backdrop of heightened tensions with European allies, who have refused to join the war being waged by Washington and Israel against Iran. For the US president, this refusal is further proof that NATO no longer serves the strategic interests of the United States. He is due to address the nation tonight at 9pm Washington time (3am Paris time).

Since the launch of the offensive against Iran in late February, without prior consultation with alliance partners, the transatlantic rift has widened. No ally has agreed to participate in the intervention, with some going so far as to describe it as illegal. Several European states have even restricted US forces’ access to their bases and airspace. Faced with this outright rejection, Trump has stepped up his hostile rhetoric, denouncing “cowardly” allies and questioning their reliability.

This sequence marks a profound rupture in the logic of solidarity that has underpinned NATO since 1949. Article 5, which provides for collective defence in the event of an attack, was not invoked, as the intervention against Iran did not constitute an external aggression. But beyond the legal framework, it is political trust that is now undermined. Several observers believe that the alliance is facing the most serious crisis in its history, as it relies above all on the credibility of the US commitment.

Institutionally speaking, a formal withdrawal by the United States would be difficult to implement. A law passed in 2024 requires the approval of two-thirds of the US Senate or authorisation from Congress. However, even without an official withdrawal, Donald Trump has significant scope to weaken NATO, notably by withdrawing troops, reducing participation in command structures or limiting engagement in the event of a crisis.

European reactions range from concern to attempts to play down the situation. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has dismissed US criticism as “noise”, whilst reaffirming that NATO remains “the most effective military alliance in the world”. At the same time, several capitals are stepping up their efforts to strengthen their defence capabilities and are considering, in the longer term, the establishment of an autonomous security framework, including the European Union and Canada.

The strategic context further exacerbates the situation. The war against Iran is becoming bogged down, with no clear prospect of a swift victory. Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a rise in energy prices and major disruptions on global markets, fuelling fears of a global recession. In this climate, the isolation of the United States appears increasingly pronounced, even amongst its traditional partners. The Guardian

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🇺🇸 United States – 🇮🇷 Iran – 🇮🇱 Israel • Donald Trump claimed that Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian had requested a ceasefire, but made any truce conditional on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranian authorities are keeping closed. Tehran has denied these claims and cited conditions including security guarantees and compensation. Strikes continue between Israeli forces, Iranian forces and their allies, with thousands of deaths and global economic tensions linked to rising energy prices.

🇮🇱 Israel • The Israeli Parliament has passed a bill providing for the death penalty as the default sentence for Palestinians (but not for Israelis guilty of the same crime) found guilty of murdering Israelis by military courts, with a verdict to be reached within 90 days and no right to a pardon. European ministers have condemned the discriminatory nature of this measure, and NGOs have strongly criticised the courts for having a conviction rate of nearly 100 per cent.

🇮🇱 Israel – 🇵🇸 Palestine • Six people were killed by Israeli fire in Gaza and the West Bank, according to Palestinian medical sources. In Gaza, strikes left four people dead, including three in an attack targeting a group in the Zeitoun neighbourhood, with the army claiming they were Hamas members. In the West Bank, two Palestinians were killed in separate incidents involving Israeli soldiers.

🇱🇧 Lebanon – 🇮🇱 Israel • A senior Hezbollah leader, Youssef Hachem, was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut. The attack targeted a meeting in the Jnah neighbourhood and left a total of seven dead and 26 injured, according to Lebanese authorities. Israeli raids have already caused more than 1,300 deaths in a month.

🇺🇸 United States – 🇮🇷 Iran • President Donald Trump is considering asking Arab countries for financial contributions to support the war being waged alongside Israel against Iran, according to his spokesperson.

🇱🇧 Lebanon • Lebanon is bracing for a prolonged migration crisis linked to Israeli military operations in the south, with over 1.2 million people displaced and hundreds of thousands potentially unable to return home.

🇪🇺 European Union • Inflation in the eurozone reached 2.5% year-on-year in March, up from 1.9% in February, driven by rising energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Energy prices rose by 4.9% year-on-year, whilst core inflation fell slightly to 2.3%. The European Commission is calling on Member States to reduce demand for oil in the face of rising prices linked to the war in the Middle East.

🇷🇺 Russia – 🇺🇦 Ukraine • Russia claims to have taken full control of the Luhansk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defence, a claim that has not been independently verified. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian army states that there have been no recent changes on the ground.

🇫🇮 Finland – 🇺🇦 Ukraine • Following the crash of two drones in southern Finland, the Ukrainian authorities have apologised to Helsinki, whilst insisting that no aircraft had been directed towards Finnish territory. Ukrainian officials suggest a probable deviation caused by Russian electronic warfare systems.

🇷🇺 Russia • A Russian An-26 military transport aircraft crashed in Crimea, killing 29 people according to the Ministry of Defence.

🇭🇺 Hungary – 🇷🇺 Russia • Eastern European media claim that Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto passed on strategic information to Moscow and maintained a close relationship with Sergey Lavrov. He is said to have supported efforts to ease European sanctions and sought arguments from his Russian counterparts.

🇨🇭 Switzerland – 🇺🇸 United States • The Swiss government has raised the possibility of abandoning the purchase of US Patriot systems due to delivery delays. The United States has redirected certain Swiss funds, originally intended for F-35 aircraft, towards the Patriot programme. The final decision could be made by the end of June 2026, posing a broader risk to other Swiss military purchases.

🇺🇸 United States • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed lacks effective short-term tools to respond to an energy shock, noting that monetary policy takes time to take effect.

🇺🇸 United States • President Donald Trump has confirmed the construction of a military complex beneath the future White House ballroom, presented as protection against threats such as drones. The project includes a hall capable of accommodating 1,000 people and has seen its budget rise from $200 million to $400 million, funded by private donations.

🇨🇺 Cuba • A Russian oil tanker has delivered 730,000 barrels of crude oil to Cuba at the port of Matanzas, offering some respite from US energy restrictions. This first shipment since January provides temporary support for transport and electricity generation in a country facing severe shortages. The Cuban authorities welcome this valuable aid, but analysts believe that this contribution remains insufficient to resolve structural difficulties in the face of Washington’s blockade.

🇲🇲 Myanmar • General Min Aung Hlaing, the architect of the 2021 coup, is set to become president following elections won by pro-military parties. The former army chief, who stepped down from his military post to comply with the Constitution, is thus consolidating his power in a country embroiled in civil war. Pro-democracy forces and armed ethnic groups continue their fight against the junta, whilst the international community questions the legitimacy of the election and condemns human rights violations.

🇹🇼 Taiwan – 🇨🇳 China • Taiwanese opposition leader Cheng Li-wun, head of the Kuomintang, will visit China from 7 to 12 April at the invitation of Xi Jinping, with stops planned in Beijing, Shanghai and Jiangsu province. She hopes to strengthen exchanges and promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations. Beijing refuses to engage in dialogue with the current government but maintains contacts with the Kuomintang.

🇵🇰 Pakistan – 🇦🇫 Afghanistan • Afghan and Pakistani officials have begun negotiations in Urumqi, mediated by China, in an attempt to end the recent clashes between the two countries, the deadliest since 2021. The talks focus on a ceasefire and the reopening of border crossings for trade and travel. Tensions remain high following Pakistani strikes and exchanges of fire, despite an Eid truce already weakened by mutual accusations of supporting armed groups.

🇸🇳 Senegal • President Bassirou Diomaye Faye has enacted a law doubling the penalties for same-sex relations, which are now punishable by five to ten years’ imprisonment, with significantly increased fines. The authorities have stepped up arrests in recent weeks. International organisations and NGOs have condemned this as a violation of human rights and expressed concern about the consequences for public health in the country.

🇧🇮 Burundi • A fire at an ammunition depot in Bujumbura triggered deadly explosions, killing dozens according to security sources, though no official death toll has been released by the authorities. The fire, attributed to an electrical fault, broke out at the main military arsenal located in a densely populated neighbourhood.