China has long been preparing for an oil crisis in the Middle East

As the world’s largest oil importer, China finds itself on the front line of the price surge triggered by the war in the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards – a waterway through which around a fifth of the world’s oil passes – immediately sent prices soaring to over $100 a barrel. On paper, China’s vulnerability is clear: in 2025, nearly 57% of the country’s seaborne crude oil imports came from the Middle East, with a significant proportion originating from Iran.

Yet, Beijing appears so far to be weathering this energy shock better than expected. This relative resilience is primarily due to the scale of the strategic reserves built up over the last two decades. Estimates suggest between 1.2 and 1.4 billion barrels are in storage, enough to cover around 100 days of imports. These reserves were specifically accumulated to cope with major geopolitical crises disrupting energy flows.

The Chinese authorities had, in fact, anticipated the possibility of a confrontation with Iran. Customs data show that crude oil imports surged by nearly 16% during the first two months of 2026 compared with the same period the previous year. This stockpiling strategy acts as a genuine safety net for the Chinese economy, which is heavily reliant on energy to sustain its industry.

At the same time, Beijing has accelerated the diversification of its supplies. Russian hydrocarbons now play an increasingly significant role, despite Western sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine. The current crisis could even strengthen this energy partnership, particularly around the “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline project, designed to link Russian gas fields directly to the Chinese market. Over the past year, the Middle East’s share of China’s oil imports has thus fallen from around 60% to 50%.

The Chinese government is also pushing for the electrification of transport. Electric vehicles already account for around 12% of the country’s private car fleet. In the freight transport sector, nearly 30% of new lorries sold last year were electric. This structural transformation is reducing dependence on oil, even if it remains incomplete.

Despite these strengths, the war in the Middle East remains a source of concern for Beijing. Several industries, notably chemicals, steel and glass, could bear the brunt of rising energy prices. The petrochemical sector remains a key pillar of the Chinese economy and is still heavily reliant on hydrocarbons.

Aware of this vulnerability, China is stepping up calls for de-escalation. Beijing has notably refused to join the military coalition proposed by Donald Trump to secure the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the Chinese authorities hope to secure preferential treatment from Tehran for the passage of their oil tankers through this strategic area, a sign that energy diplomacy remains at the heart of China’s strategy in the face of the crisis. France 24

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🇮🇷 Iran – 🇮🇱 Israel – 🇺🇸 United States • Iran is calling on the international community to exercise restraint as Israeli and US strikes continue. The Strait of Hormuz is virtually paralysed, military tensions are spreading across the region and oil prices are soaring.

🇮🇷 Iran – 🇺🇸 United States • US strikes on the oil-rich island of Kharg are unsettling the markets, with Brent crude exceeding $106 a barrel. Risks to the Strait of Hormuz threaten global supplies.

🇺🇸 United States – 🇮🇷 Iran • US President Donald Trump called on Saturday for several countries (notably NATO members, China and Japan) to send warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz alongside the United States. Washington plans to escort oil tankers, whilst Iran is threatening to target US oil infrastructure in the Middle East.

🇵🇸 Palestine – 🇮🇱 Israel • In the West Bank, the Israeli army opened fire yesterday on a car in Tammoun, killing a Palestinian couple and their two children, according to Palestinian authorities. Two other children were injured and an Israeli investigation is underway.

🇵🇰 Pakistan – 🇦🇫 Afghanistan • Pakistan carried out further strikes in Afghanistan on Friday, including a bombing in Kabul that killed four people and injured 15 others, according to Taliban authorities. A Pakistani shell also killed a woman and a child in the east of the country.

🇺🇦 Ukraine • At least six people were killed and dozens injured during massive Russian strikes on Saturday targeting several regions, including the Kyiv region. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia fired 430 drones and 68 missiles, targeting energy infrastructure in particular.

🇺🇦 Ukraine • The capital, Kyiv, was targeted this morning by a rare daytime attack carried out by Russia using 211 drones of various types, according to the Ukrainian Air Force, which claims to have shot down 194 of them. Debris fell in several neighbourhoods, including the city centre near the main square, causing explosions and forcing residents to seek shelter. The strikes also hit Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, causing several casualties.

🇨🇺 Cuba – 🇺🇸 United States • President Miguel Diaz-Canel has confirmed recent discussions between Cuban officials and US representatives. The talks aim to identify bilateral issues and seek solutions through dialogue, in a process described as “highly sensitive”.

🇪🇨 Ecuador • The Ecuadorian government has launched a two-week operation against drug trafficking, deploying 75,000 troops with US support. Night-time curfews have been imposed in several coastal provinces to bolster security against criminal groups.

🇨🇬 Congo-Brazzaville • Voters cast their ballots yesterday in the presidential election. The incumbent president, Denis Sassou-Nguesso, 82, is seeking a new term against six little-known candidates, whilst the main opposition parties are boycotting the poll and fearing a high abstention rate.

🇳🇬 Nigeria • Suspected jihadists attacked a military post in Maiduguri, Borno State, overnight. The army quickly repelled the attackers near the Ajilari Cross neighbourhood, and calm has returned to the area this morning.

🇨🇩 DRC • ADF rebels linked to the Islamic State organisation attacked mining sites near Muchacha, in Ituri. The attack left several people dead, set the facilities ablaze and led to the displacement of civilians, according to Congolese authorities.

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