The arrival of thousands of Moroccans in Ceuta (a Spanish autonomous city in Morocco) in recent hours has significantly strained relations that Madrid and Rabat had believed to have stabilised since 2021. That year, a crisis of a similar nature had prompted the Spanish government to abandon its traditional neutrality on Western Sahara and align itself with Morocco’s positions. In return, agreements were sealed during Pedro Sánchez’s visit to Rabat in April 2022, including measures to control migration flows, which have been in place ever since, albeit with ups and downs.
Government sources attribute the current wave to a rumour circulating on social media, claiming that anyone who reaches the Spanish city by swimming could no longer be deported, in accordance with a recent Supreme Court ruling on people rescued at sea. The same sources admit that none of this would have been possible without the passivity of the Moroccan authorities, and this is where the political stakes lie.
On Thursday, a public holiday in Morocco marking Throne Day, the gendarmes had disappeared from the Moroccan side, allowing entire families to cross the Tarajal passage almost on foot. Checks had already been relaxed in the preceding days. The situation lasted for several hours, even though everyone was aware of what was happening, leading Spanish experts to view it as a deliberate move rather than a lack of coordination.
The Spanish government chose to remain silent on the criticism. Fernando Grande-Marlaska and José Manuel Albares held numerous discussions with their Moroccan counterparts, praising their exemplary cooperation, and blamed the criminal networks that are essential for the sea crossing to Spain, but far less so for walking to the border at Ceuta.
Rabat’s motives remain a mystery, even to the Spanish authorities. The most obvious factor relates to Pedro Sánchez’s visit to Algiers on 20 July, which sealed the reconciliation with Algeria and paved the way for a high-level meeting this autumn in Madrid. Any Spanish rapprochement with one of the two rival powers in the Maghreb arouses the suspicions of the other. Added to this are the forthcoming law granting Spanish nationality to natives of the former colony, the fate of the Sahrawis in the Tindouf camps, the status of Gibraltar – which Rabat has always linked to that of Ceuta and Melilla – and even the 2030 World Cup final, which Casablanca hopes to host. Some see this as a warning, directed at this government or the one that will succeed it. El Pais
Europe
🇪🇸 Spain - 🇲🇦 Morocco • Around 60,000 people crossed the border from Morocco into the enclave of Ceuta between Thursday and Friday, representing nearly 70 per cent of the local population, according to the president of the autonomous city, Juan Vivas. The Spanish government has reported at least 57 deaths, with many young men drowning whilst swimming around the border fence, sometimes using nothing more than simple buoys. Madrid has sent police and military reinforcements, with Pedro Sánchez denouncing a violation of Spain’s territorial integrity, and some 48,300 people had already left by late Friday afternoon. Italy, Finland and Denmark have proposed suspending the Schengen Area agreement with Spain (although Ceuta, whilst an autonomous Spanish city, is not part of the Schengen Area), a measure that Madrid considers demagogic and for which there is no provision in European legislation.
🇰🇵 North Korea - 🇷🇺 Russia - 🇺🇦 Ukraine • Russia fired 74 missiles and 284 drones at Ukraine during the night from Wednesday to Thursday, killing at least nine people. In Radushne, near Kryvyi Rih, 10 members of the Voronov family are missing after their home was destroyed by a ballistic missile, which Volodymyr Zelensky says was of North Korean manufacture – the first launch of this type observed in nearly a year. The Ukrainian president is calling for new interceptors, as supplies of US-made Patriot missiles are running low. Donald Trump also told the Financial Times that he was not certain whether to authorise Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles, a weapon he considers extraordinary and for which, in his view, licensing requires caution. The US president had announced the opposite in early July.
🇵🇱 Poland - 🇷🇺 Russia • A projectile crashed during the night between Wednesday and Thursday near Tarnawa-Kolonia, in the Lublin region, leaving a crater ten metres in diameter but causing no injuries. Donald Tusk attributed the impact to a Russian Kh-101 missile and dismissed the idea that Poland had been targeted, stating that the air defence system could have shot it down. NATO condemned the violation of Polish airspace and pledged to continue defending its territory.
🇬🇷 Greece • Greek firefighters remain on high alert, as winds reaching 88 km/h are fanning the flames across the country. In Crete, 4,500 hectares have been burnt south of Rethymnon and 8,000 people have been evacuated from the seaside resort of Agia Galini, where there has been significant damage. Today, a new fire prompted the authorities to evacuate part of Chaidari, on the outskirts of Athens, and 200 residents of a village in Boeotia were rescued by sea. Ursula von der Leyen offered her condolences following the deaths of three firefighters.
🇷🇺 Russia - 🇺🇦 Ukraine • Ukrainian drone strikes on power substations and fuel depots in annexed Crimea have crippled the tourist season, with hotel bookings falling by 72 per cent in July compared with last year. Power cuts and petrol shortages are a daily reality for the 2.4 million residents, with a litre of unleaded petrol costing nearly 250 roubles – three to four times its previous price. Moscow has allocated more than 4.3 billion roubles to support the sector.
🇨🇳 China - 🇪🇺 European Union • The European Commission accuses Temu of obstructing its investigation into possible Chinese state subsidies, as the platform failed to respond to requests for basic information during inspections carried out in Ireland in December. Temu denies the allegations and claims to have cooperated fully. Fines could amount to 1 per cent of turnover, following the €200 million fine already imposed in May.
🇪🇺 European Union • The European Central Bank has subjected 110 eurozone banks to a reverse stress test, asking them to envisage for themselves the geopolitical shocks capable of eroding their capital. The ECB believes that banks are underestimating the speed at which liquidity strains arise.
🇨🇭 Suisse • The federal authorities are monitoring a rise in cases of fever, diarrhoea and a marked drop in milk production on the country’s livestock farms, without having identified the cause. The Federal Office for Food Safety is also investigating metabolic causes. Farmers are urged to contact their vet immediately.
Middle East
🇺🇸 United States - 🇮🇱 Israel - 🇵🇸 Palestine • On Thursday evening, Donald Trump announced an agreement on the complete disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza, the centrepiece of the second phase of the peace plan that came into force in October 2025. Hamas confirmed today that an agreement had been reached on the issue of weapons and on a phased Israeli withdrawal, stating that it would hand over its arsenal to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, a body of Palestinian technocrats based in Egypt. Hamas has made implementation conditional on Israel honouring its commitments, including a halt to attacks and the lifting of humanitarian restrictions. An Israeli political source has ruled out any withdrawal without genuine disarmament, and the far-right minister Itamar Ben Gvir has described the agreement as unacceptable. Israeli forces control more than 60 per cent of the territory, where at least 1,214 Palestinians have been killed since the “ceasefire”.
🇺🇸 United States – 🇮🇷 Iran – 🇵🇰 Pakistan • Islamabad, acting as a mediator between Washington and Tehran, states that negotiations are under way to de-escalate the situation, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran is once again blocking. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has struck dozens of targets belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which retaliated against US bases in the region. Kuwait has reported one death, Jordan the interception of five missiles, and Egypt a drone attack on the port of Damietta – the first on its soil since the start of the war. Riyadh has announced the formation of a coalition of around fifteen states to secure shipping in the Red Sea.
Africa
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo • Congolese authorities have recorded 3,532 confirmed cases of Ebola and 1,556 deaths across five provinces, a toll that now exceeds that of the 2018–2020 outbreak, the country’s deadliest to date. The outbreak is centred in Ituri, which accounts for nearly 90 per cent of cases, and there is currently no vaccine or treatment for the Bundibugyo variant responsible. Two vaccine candidates are under development, one at Hilleman Laboratories and the other at the University of Oxford.
