A fragile truce following Trump’s U-turn on Iran

Donald Trump has announced a two-week ceasefire with Tehran, marking a sharp departure from the threats he had made just hours earlier, when he was still talking of obliterating the Iranian regime. This pause, negotiated with Pakistan’s support, opens a narrow but welcome diplomatic window in a war whose outcome remains deeply uncertain.

The agreement rests on a central compromise: the suspension of US strikes in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic maritime chokepoint, essential for global oil transport, had become Iran’s main lever of pressure. By demonstrating its ability to disrupt this key passage, Tehran has imposed a form of effective asymmetric deterrence in the face of US military superiority. The immediate fall in oil prices following the announcement illustrates the systemic importance of this issue.

On the diplomatic front, discussions are now set to continue in Islamabad. Iran has agreed to halt its defensive operations and allow a supervised resumption of maritime traffic, whilst leaving technical uncertainties hanging over a return to normality. Meanwhile, Washington is hinting at a possible lifting of sanctions, whilst a draft ten-point agreement is circulating, though its exact content has not yet been finalised. Some versions mention the continuation of Iran’s uranium enrichment programme, which constitutes a major point of contention.

This ceasefire does not signify the end of hostilities. Israel, a key US ally, immediately made it clear that its operations in Lebanon would not be affected. This divergence highlights the fragmentation of the regional theatre and the difficulty of imposing a comprehensive de-escalation. In reality, tensions remain high, and military alerts continue in several areas.

For Donald Trump, this U-turn reflects a strategic impasse. After several weeks of intensive strikes, US objectives remain only partially achieved. The Strait of Hormuz has not been secured on a lasting basis, and Iran’s capacity to cause disruption remains intact. By backing down, the US president is seeking to regain the diplomatic initiative, whilst limiting the risks of an uncontrollable escalation. This decision nevertheless exposes the White House to internal criticism, including from within the conservative camp, where some denounce an inconsistent strategy.

On the Iranian side, the regime has emerged militarily weakened, but strengthened in its capacity for strategic disruption. The conflict has confirmed that indirect control over global energy flows constitutes a formidable tool of power, far more immediately exploitable than the nuclear programme. Tehran thus appears to have transformed a defensive position into a bargaining chip. Le Monde

🌍 World • At least 326 aid workers were killed in 21 countries in 2025, according to the United Nations, bringing the total to over 1,010 deaths in three years. Palestine accounts for the majority of the victims, ahead of Sudan, South Sudan, Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The UN’s humanitarian chief has condemned a collapse in protection and growing violations of international humanitarian law.

🇮🇷 Iran – 🇱🇧 Lebanon – 🇮🇱 Israel – 🇮🇶 Iraq • More than 5,000 people have been killed in the Middle East since 28 February following the US and Israeli offensive against Iran. Reports indicate thousands of deaths in Iran and Lebanon, as well as casualties in Iraq, Israel and several Gulf states. Authorities and NGOs report that both civilians and military personnel are among the victims, though figures remain difficult to verify independently.

🇵🇰 Pakistan – 🇮🇷 Iran – 🇺🇸 United States • Pakistan has established itself as a key mediator by securing a temporary truce between Iran and the United States and arranging negotiations in Islamabad. Its historical relations with Iran, ties with Washington and support from China and the Gulf states reinforce its role.

🇱🇧 Lebanon • Israeli strikes on an unprecedented scale since the start of the war have left dozens dead and hundreds injured in Lebanon, according to the authorities, with bombardments hitting notably the heart of Beirut and several regions of the country; the Israeli army claims to have targeted infrastructure and Hezbollah members during a coordinated operation against around a hundred targets.

🇹🇷 Turkey • A shootout broke out near the Israeli consulate in Istanbul, leaving one attacker dead and two others injured following an intervention by security forces.

🇫🇷 France – 🇮🇷 Iran • The French nationals Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris, who had been detained in Iran for over three years, have been released and have arrived in France. They left Tehran under diplomatic escort. According to the Iranian authorities, their release is part of an agreement involving the Iranian national Mahdieh Esfandiari, whose house arrest has been lifted.

🌍 World • The supply of aviation kerosene will take several months to return to normal, according to IATA, despite a fall in oil prices following the announcement of a truce between the United States and Iran. Disruptions to refining capacity in the Middle East remain a key factor. Airlines will have to pass on the increased costs to ticket prices, and Gulf hubs, which have been severely affected, are expected to recover quickly despite a short-term impact on capacity.

🇺🇦 Ukraine – 🇷🇺 Russia • President Volodymyr Zelenskyy states that Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire with Russia if Moscow ends its strikes. He welcomes the truce between the US and Iran, believing that a halt to the fighting could facilitate diplomatic agreements. The Kremlin also welcomes this development. Talks remain deadlocked over territorial issues, with Russia demanding concessions in the Donbas that Kyiv refuses to grant.

🇺🇦 Ukraine • The Russian army has carried out attacks in the south-east of the country, killing at least eight people and injuring more than twenty, according to local authorities. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, drones struck civilian buses in Nikopol, causing several casualties. In Kherson, shelling of a residential area killed four elderly people and injured several others. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has condemned the daily violence targeting civilians and criticised discussions on easing sanctions against Russia.

🇮🇷 Iran – 🇺🇸 United States • The announcement of a temporary ceasefire and negotiations between the Iranian and US authorities triggered a fall of around 20% in European gas prices, with a sharp drop in the Dutch TTF contract. Oil prices also fell sharply, as markets had previously anticipated a scenario involving a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar is weakening against major currencies, weighed down by geopolitical détente and falling energy-related yields.

🇪🇺 European Union • The European Central Bank has warned of Europe’s dependence on imported fossil fuels, which it considers problematic for price stability. The recent rise in energy prices, linked to the conflict in the Middle East, contributed to 2.5% inflation in March. An ECB official has called for the transition to local clean energy to be accelerated in order to reduce price volatility and limit economic shocks for households and businesses.

🇭🇺 Hungary • The opposition Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar, remains ahead in the polls just days before the 12 April general election, ahead of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz. According to a poll, 51% of committed voters support Tisza compared to 40% for Fidesz, with a significant proportion of undecided voters. The latest polls confirm a persistent lead for the opposition, although the outcome of the election remains uncertain.

🇭🇺 Hungary – 🇺🇸 United States • US Vice-President JD Vance denounced in Budapest what he called “shameful interference” by the European Union in the Hungarian elections, lending his support to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, an ally of Donald Trump, thereby doing exactly what he condemns: interfering in the electoral process. He accused the European institutions of attempting to weaken the country’s economy and energy independence.

🇫🇷 France - 🇷🇺 Russia • France plans to tighten legislation against the Russian ghost fleet by doubling penalties for flying a false flag and refusing to comply, with up to two years’ imprisonment and a fine of €300,000. Penalties could rise to seven years’ imprisonment and a fine of €700,000 in cases where safety is endangered. The legislation also targets owners and operators. Nearly 598 vessels are affected by the European sanctions, and the French Navy has already boarded several oil tankers.

🇷🇺 Russia • A court in Saint Petersburg has sentenced six anti-war activists from the Vesna movement to prison terms ranging from 6 to 12 years. The defendants, aged between 24 and 30, were prosecuted for participating in an extremist organisation, spreading false information about the army and making calls against state security. The movement, which opposes the war in Ukraine, was banned in 2022. The convicted individuals are considered political prisoners by the Memorial organisation.

🇰🇵 North Korea – 🇰🇷 South Korea • North Korea launched an unidentified projectile off its east coast, according to the South Korean military, following a test carried out the previous day. South Korean and US authorities are analysing the data. North Korean officials have reiterated that South Korea remains a hostile country, despite recent signs perceived as conciliatory in Seoul, which dampens hopes for a lasting détente between the two nations.

🇷🇼 Rwanda • The French courts have ordered the referral to the Special Assize Court in Paris of Cyprien Kayumba, a former Hutu lieutenant-colonel, suspected of complicity in genocide and crimes against humanity for arms deliveries in 1994. The 70-year-old, who denies any knowledge of the massacres, had previously had the case against him dismissed in 2025. The National Anti-Terrorism Prosecutor’s Office secured the overturning of that decision and his placement under judicial supervision.