A "European NATO": preparations are already underway

European officials are quietly working on a contingency plan, sometimes referred to as a "European NATO", which would enable the continent to defend itself by drawing on the existing structures of the North Atlantic Alliance in the event of a US withdrawal. The idea, which emerged last year and is championed by France and Finland, aims to preserve deterrence against Russia, operational continuity and nuclear credibility, even if Washington were to redeploy its forces or refuse to defend an ally.

The catalyst came from Berlin. Long committed to keeping the United States as the ultimate guarantor of the continent’s security, Germany changed course under the impetus of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who was convinced that Donald Trump was prepared to abandon Ukraine and blur the line between aggressor and victim. The US president’s repeated threats regarding Greenland, followed by the crisis arising from Europe’s refusal to support the war in Iran, accelerated the shift, to the point where Trump described his allies as “cowards” and NATO as a “paper tiger”.

The UK, Poland, the Nordic countries and Canada have rallied around the Franco-German core, describing their work as a coalition of the willing within the Alliance. Concrete projects include air defence, reinforcement corridors to Poland and the Baltic states, logistics and major regional exercises. Leaders are also considering reviving missile production, in-flight refuelling capabilities and space surveillance – all areas where Europe lags behind.

The nuclear issue remains the most sensitive part of the equation. Following Trump’s threats regarding Greenland, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz have begun discussions on the possible extension of French deterrence to Germany and other partners. The Alliance’s supreme command, however, remains American, and Washington has no intention of relinquishing this position. The Europeans, who already hold more key posts in the military headquarters, recognise that they will not be able to replace US satellites, intelligence and the nuclear umbrella in the short term, leaving Paris and London with a role set to expand massively in the medium and long term. The Washington Post

🌍 International • IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Wednesday called on countries to "brace for difficult times" if oil prices remain high due to the war in the Middle East. She urged governments to cut back on the most energy-intensive activities and warned against further spending, at a time when global debt stands at 94% of GDP, its highest level since the Second World War. The Fund has already received a dozen requests for new aid programmes, including several from sub-Saharan Africa.

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🇮🇷 Iran • On Friday, Iran announced that it would “fully” reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels for the duration of the ceasefire in Lebanon, an announcement welcomed by Donald Trump and followed by a 10% drop in oil prices. Military vessels remain banned, and the US blockade of Iranian ports remains in force. Negotiations for a second round of talks are continuing under the auspices of Pakistan.

🇮🇱 Israel – 🇱🇧 Lebanon • Donald Trump announced yesterday a 10-day “ceasefire” between Israel and Lebanon, including the pro-Iranian Hezbollah, and an upcoming meeting at the White House between President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The US State Department states that Beirut has committed to preventing any attacks by Hezbollah. Since Lebanon entered the war in early March, more than 2,000 people have been killed by Israeli strikes and around one million displaced, according to the UN. The Israeli army will maintain a presence in a 10-km border strip.

🇮🇷 Iran • Iran has suspended all exports of petrochemical products until further notice in order to prioritise domestic supply, following Israeli strikes that damaged the centres of Asaluyeh and Mahshahr, according to the daily Donya-e-Eqtesad. The directive, issued on 13 April by the National Petrochemical Company, aims to stabilise domestic markets despite rising global prices. The US military is also blocking Iranian ports to reduce Tehran’s revenue, whilst Iranian and US diplomats prepare for a second round of talks. The sector is worth around $13 billion a year.

🇺🇦 Ukraine – 🇷🇺 Russia • Massive Russian strikes killed at least 19 people and injured 111 overnight from Wednesday to Thursday, notably in Kyiv and Odessa, in what were among the deadliest attacks in recent weeks. The Russian military launched 659 drones and 44 missiles in 24 hours, according to the Ukrainian air force. European Council President Antonio Costa condemned “yet another atrocious attack”. Peace negotiations have stalled since the outbreak of war in the Middle East, which has diverted Washington’s attention.

🇪🇺 European Union – 🇺🇦 Ukraine • Brussels plans to release the €90 billion loan for Kyiv during the second quarter, Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis announced on Thursday. The programme, which is intended to cover two-thirds of Ukraine’s financial needs, had been blocked since late 2025 by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. His electoral defeat on Sunday, which will bring Peter Magyar to power in May, paves the way for a swift release of funds.

🇺🇦 Ukraine – 🇷🇴 Romania • A Russian drone attack last night damaged infrastructure in Izmail, Ukraine’s largest port on the Danube, on the Romanian border. Administrative buildings and railway lines were hit, with no injuries reported. Since 6pm yesterday, Russia has launched one ballistic missile and 172 drones against Ukraine, 147 of which were shot down or neutralised, according to the air force. The Romanian Ministry of Defence confirmed that a drone had violated its airspace during the attack.

🇪🇺 European Union • On Friday, the EU awarded a €180 million cloud contract to European suppliers, the first tender to incorporate technological sovereignty criteria. The contract was awarded to a consortium comprising Luxembourg’s Post Telecom, France’s CleverCloud and OVHcloud, Germany’s StackIT, France’s Scaleway (Iliad), Proximus, S3NS (a Thales-Google Cloud joint venture) and France’s Mistral. Brussels, which until now has relied heavily on Amazon and Microsoft, is preparing broader proposals on digital sovereignty, against a backdrop of tensions with Washington.

🇪🇺 European Union – 🇺🇸 United States • The EU’s trade surplus with the rest of the world fell by 60% in February, according to Eurostat, with exports to the United States declining by 26.4% due to US tariffs of 15%. European exports fell by 9.3% year-on-year and imports by 3.5%, with shipments to China also declining.

🇷🇺 Russia • Russia is set to bolster air defences around its critical sites in the Leningrad region, on the Baltic coast, following repeated Ukrainian strikes against the oil ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, Governor Alexander Drozdenko announced today. According to the Helsinki-based Energy and Clean Air Research Centre, oil shipments from these two ports have halved following a drone attack on 23 March.

🇺🇦 Ukraine – 🇮🇹 Italy • Giorgia Meloni and Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Wednesday in Rome a strategic partnership dubbed the "Drone Deal" to strengthen their defence cooperation, particularly in drone production, joint research and cybersecurity. Italy has supplied weapons to Kyiv, including the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system, but has not joined the PURL programme, which provides funding for US equipment for Ukraine.

🇪🇺 European Union – 🇸🇾 Syria • Brussels plans to re-establish relations with Damascus by reviving political contacts and economic and security cooperation, according to a document from the EU’s diplomatic service seen by Reuters. A high-level political dialogue with the transitional authorities will begin on 11 May, alongside a review of the sanctions regime. The EU intends to facilitate the “safe, voluntary and dignified” return of Syrian refugees, more than a million of whom live in Europe, and to position Syria as a regional hub for transport and energy. It will also support the integration of Syrian Kurds.

🇨🇲 Cameroon • On Wednesday, Pope Francis urged the Cameroonian authorities to engage in “soul-searching” on the first day of his visit, calling for “breaking the chains of corruption” in the presence of President Paul Biya, 93, who has been in power since 1982. The Pope emphasised respect for human rights and praised the role of civil society, humanitarian NGOs and trade unions in maintaining social peace. Paul Biya’s re-election in October 2025 was followed by protests that were suppressed, and organisations have condemned an unprecedented crackdown.

🇦🇺 Australia • Canberra is set to increase its defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2033, up from around 2% today, in response to the proliferation of conflicts and US pressure on its allies. Defence Minister Richard Marles has announced an additional 53 billion Australian dollars over 10 years, to be spent on missiles, drones and missile defence, whilst aligning his calculation method with that of NATO. Concerned about the rise of the Chinese navy, Australia is relying on the AUKUS partnership to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, although the country’s prospects of ultimately securing these vessels remain unclear, to say the least.

🇲🇲 Myanmar • Aung San Suu Kyi’s prison sentence was reduced today as part of a wide-ranging amnesty for the Myanmar New Year, decided by the new president Min Aung Hlaing, the former junta leader who overthrew her government in 2021. The fallen icon of democracy, aged 80 and winner of the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize, is serving a 27-year sentence in a secret location. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, has called for her “immediate” and “unconditional” release, along with that of other political prisoners.

🇻🇦 Vatican – 🇺🇸 United States • By threatening to destroy Iranian civilisation, Donald Trump has prompted Pope Leo XIV to break his silence, analysts believe. The first American pope in history, hitherto cautious, described the president’s threats as “truly unacceptable” and said he was not “afraid” of the Trump administration. The president retorted by calling the pontiff “weak” and “a failure in foreign policy”. According to observers, this spat offers Leo XIV a wider platform and could rally conservative and reformist Catholics around the Holy See.